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Information report on behalf of the Senate delegation for planning on the outlook for the price of medium and long term hydrocarbons.

By MM. Joseph Kergueris and Claude SAUNIER, Senators.

Introduction

22 held on June under the chairmanship of Mr. Joël BOURDIN, Chair, Parliamentary Delegation for Planning the Senate told your two rapporteurs a study on the evolution of the medium-term oil prices.

At that time, a barrel of crude was trading at 55 dollars and the press commented his weekly movements upwards and downwards.

The objective of this study was threefold.

First, it was necessary to distance the face of this media storm to analyze in depth the oil pricing mechanisms and understand the reasons for this increase. While newspapers and magazines have largely seized this theme, the proposed analysis is often partial and does not address the various points of view to form an opinion. However, Parliament can not act effectively if it is knowledgeable.

Moreover, given the increasing numbers as varied and contradictory statements on the evolution of oil prices, this study was to clarify the debate by analyzing the assumptions on which the various estimates are based and develop its own projections.

Finally, this study was to aim to measure the impact of rising oil prices on the world economy: between 2003 and 2005, prices have increased 2,2. So this is indeed a new oil shock, even if it differs from the first two on many points.


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