Despite ongoing terrorism, markets are gradually returning to the summer period. The barrel of crude seems to him already in the winter period! With more than $ 60 over the past few days, the oil shock continues and its consequences are still ahead of us. Economic growth remains vigorous and "energy-intensive" in both the United States and Asia, will it be sustainable in this context of expensive oil?
Operators insufficiently reassured by the increase in quotas agreed by OPEC, are reduced to all bullish assumptions (up $ 100 barrel!) But must remember that the recessionary effect, so self-regulating, would then strong particularly in China.
Yet there is a good news for companies and their shareholders in a troubled macroeconomic environment, the weakening of the euro against all currencies. The lowering of ECB rates is still no news after months of inaction and the causes of this adjustment are clear:
- Political distrust in Europe after the failed constitutional referenda,
- Significant differential in short rates rise after the sixth 0,25% of the EDF
- Force unwavering US and Chinese growth.
Also, even though the underlying data at the exchange rate of the dollar remains negative, the return to a more consistent parity of the euro is bound to act as a breath of fresh air for a Europe of growth asphyxiated ... Italy, for example, is today seriously affected by offshoring, lack of sufficient service sector of its economy.
The major European public companies abroad will find through this more room at the table of the globalization of trade. Investors, protected by high dividend yields and animation of daily financial transactions, must clearly continue to focus for the future equities over bonds.
The level of long rates seems to cry recession! The revival of the indices indicates his net return of confidence ... It is probably too early to define the trend. But like a barometer down from a cloudless sky, the minimum prudence recommend regular benefits taken before the holidays and building a cash allocation for September.
Good holidays !