The surface temperature of the globe could rise to 11 degrees Celsius as the largest climate modeling program ever made.
The first results of the climateprediction.net experiment just published the 27 January in the journal Nature. In over 150 countries 95 000 computers connected to each other led to the development of 60 000 climate models, coordinated by the University of Oxford.
The models predict a rise in average temperature of Earth 2 11.5 ° C to ° C. The high estimate until now admitted was therefore doubled, the range of IPCC models ranging than 2 5.8 ° C to ° C. An increase of 3.4 2050 ° C in the horizon is considered most likely. The highest temperatures (8 and 11.5 ° C) have a probability of 4.6% to be achieved, but this is the first time that a General Circulation Model provides for such increase.
An atmospheric concentration of CO2 400 ppm (ppm = parts per million) is considered dangerous by scientists; The current concentration 2005 378 beginning of ppm and we earn each year 2ppm. Global consumption of fossil energy is 7,5 billion tonnes oil equivalent / year and it is growing.