PARIS (Reuters) - Oil prices could cost 380 dollars in ten years, almost eight times more than today, says the Ixis-CIB investment bank in a study published Monday.
"By analogy with the oil shocks of the 1970 years, it does not seem unreasonable to foresee a price of 380 dollars per barrel for oil in 2015," write the authors of this study, economists Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi.
On the contrary, they judge "very conservative" and "totally unreasonable" the assumptions that the price of a barrel of crude, which now fluctuates around 50 dollars, could fall between 30 and 40 dollars in the next ten years.
Currently, world oil consumption (84,3 million barrels per day) remains below the maximum production capacity known (87 million bpd).
Extrapolating current trends in global oil consumption, economists Ixis-CIB believe that it will be around 108 2015 million bpd in and will be superior to 8% in production capacity estimated at 100 million bpd.
Several factors explain this in their evolution:
- A small increase in production capacity resulting from a continuous decrease of the newly found oil reserves;
- Increased oil consumption faster than world GDP, especially with the prospect of a significant increase in demand from China;
- The relatively slow development of alternative energy sources.
"Within ten years, we can consider that fossil fuel substitutes (the return of nuclear power, hydrogen, etc.) will not have developed much," write Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi. "The world will therefore still depend on the usual forms of energy resources."
Econometric calculations they cite, the elasticity of oil demand in relation to oil prices will be in the very low requirements: an increase of 25% of crude prices would only 1% reduction the demand.
"To reduce the world demand for oil from 8% to 2015, 2005 to 2015 would have to be multiplied by 6,9 of the real oil price," they add. This gives, taking into account an annual inflation of 2,5% in the United States, "a nominal price of oil of 380 dollars per barrel in 2015".