PARIS (Reuters) - Oil prices could cost 380 dollars in ten years, almost eight times more than today, says the Ixis-CIB investment bank in a study published Monday.
"By analogy with the oil shocks of 1970 years, it does not seem unreasonable to predict a price 380 dollars a barrel for oil in 2015," write the authors of the study, Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi economists.
They consider the "very conservative" and otherwise "totally unreasonable" assumptions that the price of a barrel of crude, which oscillates around today 50 dollars, could return between 30 and 40 dollars in ten years.
Currently, world oil consumption (84,3 million barrels per day) remains below the maximum production capacity known (87 million bpd).
Extrapolating current trends in global oil consumption, economists Ixis-CIB believe that it will be around 108 2015 million bpd in and will be superior to 8% in production capacity estimated at 100 million bpd.
Several factors explain this in their evolution:
- A small increase in production capacity resulting from a continuous decrease of the newly found oil reserves;
- Increased oil consumption faster than world GDP, especially with the prospect of a significant increase in demand from China;
- The relatively slow development of alternative energy sources.
"In the next ten years, we can consider that the energy substitutes for fossil fuels (return of nuclear, hydrogen ...) will not have been much developed," write Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi. "The world still will depend conventional forms of energy resources. "
Econometric calculations they cite, the elasticity of oil demand in relation to oil prices will be in the very low requirements: an increase of 25% of crude prices would only 1% reduction the demand.
"To reduce 8 2015% in global oil demand, should therefore, in 2005 2015 to a multiplication by 6,9 the real price of oil," they add. What gives, taking into account an annual inflation of 2,5% in the US, "a nominal price of oil 380 dollars per barrel in 2015."