The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?

General scientific debates. Presentations of new technologies (not directly related to renewable energies or biofuels or other themes developed in other sub-sectors) forums).
Epilogis
I learn econologic
I learn econologic
posts: 12
Registration: 17/02/18, 14:12
x 6

The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Epilogis » 20/02/18, 11:24

Hello all zé all!

I am writing my 3e novel. I like SF and anticipation.
Unfortunately, I am engaged in a project a bit ambitious: my story is in 200 million years!
At the same time, it gives free rein to a lot of possibilities, since it is difficult to find reliable data on the Net for this period ...
That said, I like to inform the reader by avoiding saying too much nonsense and try to respect the "suspension of disbelief"!

So, concerning the Earth and its future, I could glean from here and there the information below (in typing style!), But without finding this one: what will be (it) the rate of oxygen, will the air be "breathable"? Taking into account the fact that the CO2 should take a slap and that the plants will be less present (photosynthesis), one can imagine that the oxygen will suffer for its part. But do you have more precise information? And do these data below seem correct to you?
In advance THANK YOU for your help ...

+ 200 Ma:
We come out of a glaciation.
The sun circled around the center of the galaxy during this time. Its brightness is about> 2% / today;
=> Moderate ↑ of luminosity => ↓ of CO² (by ↑ of silicates due to the accelerated erosion of this type of rock by ↑ of T °) => ↓ of greenhouse effect => ↓ of terrestrial re-emissions => ~ therefore low balance ↑ of T °;
Decrease to 37% of CO² / currently => the whole is dramatic for plants and therefore animals (40% of living species have disappeared) => can one then suppose a ↓ of the rate of oxygen ? ;
The days last from 25 to 26 hours (the Moon brakes the Earth), the year 343 days;
A super continent (Amasia) in the ¾ desert where only a few insects survive (hypotheses: descendants of termites and a kind of semi-vegetal worm-animal that they eat, or beetles eating the flesh of animals who have ventured there) and some plants (some carnivores) taking advantage of the coldness of the nights and the freshness of the dawn (dew) to develop;
Tropical dense forests (on the northwestern shores where "present" Mauritania will be), torrential or abundant and continuous rains, conifers, giant lichens (3m), descending mastodons of squids (if any) after the hypotheses!);
A unique ocean inhabited by other descendants of giant squids, subject to phenomenal hurricanes whose winds are blocked by the coastal mountain ranges (east and south) of the continent (the desert is behind these mountains) ;
Average T °: from -30 ° C at night to + 50 ° C during the day, we can assume ~ + 10 ° C on average (5 of - than today with an amplitude of -91 ° to + 60 ° => avg = 15,5 ° C) for the north-west zone ...

NB: it goes without saying that we are very lucky to have escaped an asteroid during this period! But the data above does not take this "possibility" into account.
1 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 11:55

Not bad as an idea! But, uh, do you suppose that men will still be alive on earth in 200 Millions of years? Bel optimism !!

The analysis of the past (ice age or hot) should answer the question of oxygen and CO2 ... for example the gigantism of the dinosaurs is certainly due to a higher rate of O2!

But why u-37% of the current CO2 content? We are in the 400 ppm CO2 ... before the industrial era it was 275 ppm according to these 2 graphics.

With -37% we would end up at the 260 ppm ... so not very far from the rate before the 1ere industrial revolution, not really panic plants I think ...

http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/art ... 55770.html

historique_evolution_CO2_1000_ans.gif
history_evolution_CO2_1000_ans.gif (19.39 Kio) Viewed 6267 times


et

https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2

historique_evolution_CO2_300_ans.png
history_evolution_CO2_300_ans.png (91.24 Kio) Viewed 6267 times


ps: this would be the 2ieme book edited with the help of this forum! 8) agriculture / the-garden-of-the-lazy-pound t15543.html
1 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 11:56

Otherwise you should find some ideas or information in this topic science-and-technology / off-the-dinosaurs-grids alive-a-800-c-t10297.html

I also remember that there is a great documentary on the distant history of the Earth ... I will try to find it for you!
1 x
izentrop
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 13644
Registration: 17/03/14, 23:42
Location: picardie
x 1502
Contact :

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by izentrop » 20/02/18, 11:58

Epilogis wrote: what will be the oxygen rate, will the air be "breathable"? Considering the fact that the CO2 should take a slap and that the plants will be less present (photosynthesis)
By 2 centuries it should stabilize again. Since 2 century there has been an acceleration in the burning of resources accumulated in the subsoil for millions of years, but we are already on the downward slope of the Hubert curve for the main CO2 emitters
Image https://jancovici.com/transition-energe ... e-charbon/
For oil https://jancovici.com/transition-energe ... -courante/
And for the biomass, the train or we continue to exploit the trees, it will be fast too.
Epilogis wrote:https://jancovici.com/transition-energetique/petrole/le-pic-de-production-une-realite-deja-courante/
It is insignificant and moreover it may not be seen much, it goes away.

Men being a species that no longer evolves in a natural way, it is not said that it is this form of life that will dominate.
1 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 12:34

izentrop wrote:By 2 centuries it should stabilize again. Since 2 century there has been an acceleration in the burning of resources accumulated in the subsoil for millions of years, but we are already on the downward slope of the Hubert curve for the main CO2 emitters


Cool then the climate problem is solved! Thank you Janco !! : Cheesy:

- Downhill curve is fast said ...there was no more oil in the year 2000 according to the "specialists" of the 60s !! : Cheesy:

- This graph / reasoning is also reductive because it does not take into account the runaway of global warming (permafrost gas hydrate, increase / decrease in biological activity, especially in the oceans, desertifications ... and other surprises that "climatic nature" has in store for us ...).

- "Positive" point of this information: we can clearly see that there is still a lot of CO2 to emit ... a quick glance says that we have "transformed into CO2" barely 40% terrestrial coal resources ...

So if these 40% represent 410-275 = 135 ppm CO2, we can assume (neglecting all other CO2 emissions) that the CO2 rate at the 2100 horizon would be 410 + (410-275) * 6 / 4 = 612 ppm ... just on the future contribution of coal and without taking into account the runaway ... I think that in reality we will be rather to the 1000 ppm ...

- When we talk about climate, we should speak in ppm CO2 equivalent ... and not be reduced to CO2 ... methane is a horror climate for example!
1 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 12:35

Christophe wrote:I also remember that there is a great documentary on the distant history of the Earth ... I will try to find it for you!


Here it is: Science-and-Technology / travel-to-origins-de-la-land-a docu-exceptional-t11287.html

We say thank you who? Thank you CriCri : Mrgreen:
1 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 12:54

And here is the evolution of ppm CO2 since 800 000 years:

3171557_5_8b75_le-seuil-de-400-parties-par-million-ppm-de_51f97b257a7037e310fff74a578782b0.png
3171557_5_8b75_le-seuil-de-400-parties-par-million-ppm-de_51f97b257a7037e310fff74a578782b0.png (30.56 Kio) Consulté 6249 fois


It has a natural oscillation between 275 and 190 ppm ... that can be assumed to be valid for 200 000 years ago to arrive at 1 million years ...
1 x
Epilogis
I learn econologic
I learn econologic
posts: 12
Registration: 17/02/18, 14:12
x 6

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Epilogis » 20/02/18, 13:16

Thank you Christophe (thank you CriCri!) And izentrop!

I'm talking about 37% no -37% : Wink:
Obtained from: "In 500 million years, the CO² content of the atmosphere will indeed have fallen to 150 ppm (parts per million), against 370 ppm of CO² today." (http://strange-univers.over-blog.com/page-2633757.html)
I resume my calculation (approximate indeed!) Because I was wrong:
150ppm => 500Ma => -59,5% = 40,5% / 370 (decrease compared to today)
282ppm => 200Ma (factor 2,5) => -23,8% = 76,2% / 370 !!! So error on my part: 76,2% and not 37%! (so I'm closer to -37 (with -23,78) than to 37!)

As for the humans in 200Ma ... actually on earth they will have disappeared! But will they still be on earth? Suspense!

The video is essentially about the origins of the earth, I had seen it on TV: great documentary. But for the future, nothing beats "future is wild" which is no longer available, except in Russian on Youtube, with deplorable automatic translation!
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79117
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10972

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by Christophe » 20/02/18, 13:29

Epilogis wrote:Thank you Christophe (thank you CriCri!) And izentrop!

(...)

therefore error on my part: 76,2% and not 37%! (So ​​I'm closer to -37 (with -23,78) than 37!)


You're welcome! :)

Oops ... well finally "we" found a good compromise lol! : Cheesy:
By cons your source does not look very scientific and that's an understatement!

Better that you look to the past no?

In any case 150 ppm is not very different from 190 ppm measures during the last million years!

Epilogis wrote:As for humans in 200Ma ... actually on earth they will have disappeared! But will they still be on earth ? !!! Suspense!


Uh .... ?????? I like SF but I have a little trouble following you! :)

Epilogis wrote:The video is essentially about the origins of the earth, I had seen it on TV: great documentary. But for the future, nothing beats "future is wild" which is no longer available, except in Russian on Youtube, with deplorable automatic translation!


I advise you anyway to see him again if you have seen in recent years, it will give you new ideas surely ...

Oh I do not know that one yet it dates 2002 already!

Here, there is still (at least) the 1er episode in English subtitled (humanly) Portuguese:

0 x
izentrop
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 13644
Registration: 17/03/14, 23:42
Location: picardie
x 1502
Contact :

Re: The Earth in 200 Millions of Years?




by izentrop » 20/02/18, 13:34

Christophe wrote:
izentrop wrote:By 2 centuries it should stabilize again. Since 2 century there has been an acceleration in the burning of resources accumulated in the subsoil for millions of years, but we are already on the downward slope of the Hubert curve for the main CO2 emitters

Cool then the climate problem is solved! Thank you Janco !! : Cheesy:
- Downhill curve is fast said ...there was no more oil in the year 2000 according to the "specialists" of the 60s !! : Cheesy:
Ok, with the prolongations, say 3 centuries to break everything so that the balance is found thanks to the action of photosynthesis.

It may be before if obscurantism does not take precedence over reason http://www.techno-science.net/?onglet=news&news=17070
The video is essentially about the origins of the earth, I had seen it on TV: great documentary. But for the future, nothing beats "future is wild" which is no longer available, except in Russian on Youtube, with deplorable automatic translation!
I prefer to follow scientific discoveries.

I watched the beginning "Voyage to the Origins of the Earth (2010)" they do not say that the shock of Théia was born the moon ejected from a piece of the same telluric rock as the earth. the Appolo missions have confirmed this.
Do not forget that it starts from hypothesis that are confirmed and reinforced over the course of discoveries and that there may be reversals as with the origins of man.
Last edited by izentrop the 20 / 02 / 18, 13: 48, 3 edited once.
1 x

 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Back to "Science and Technology"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 176 guests