A new food crisis threatens the world

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freddau
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A new food crisis threatens the world




by freddau » 14/09/06, 11:23

We hadn't known this for thirty years: cereal stocks provide only fifty-seven days of food for the world population.

The dramatic reduction in the food supply risks plunging the world into the most serious crisis it has known in thirty years. New statistics show that this year's harvest will be insufficient to feed everyone on Earth for the sixth time in seven years. Men have so far eaten their fill by drawing on stocks built up during the years of fat cows, but these have now fallen below the critical threshold.
In 2006, estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture indicate that the grain harvest will decrease for the second consecutive year. According to the FAO, it will barely exceed 2 billion tonnes, against 2,38 billion in 2005 and 2,68 billion in 2004, while the planet's appetite continues to grow as its population increases. Estimates by the US government are even more pessimistic: 1 billion tonnes, 984 million tonnes less than the consumption forecast for this year. Food stocks fell from a level sufficient to feed the world for one hundred and sixteen days in 58 to only fifty-seven days at the end of this season, well below the official level of security [seventy days]. Prices have already climbed at least 1999% this year.

Production fell in rich countries

The looming crisis has gone largely unnoticed because, for once, crops have fallen in wealthy countries like the United States and Australia, which normally export food, not in most hungry countries in the world. Also, neither Africa nor Asia suffered from great famine. The effect of the deficit will be felt gradually, when poor people can no longer buy food that has become too expensive, or when their own crops will decline. Worldwide, more than 800 million people are hungry.
From 1950 to 1990, cereal yields more than doubled, and production fell from 630 million to 1,78 billion tonnes. But, for the past fifteen years, yields have grown much more slowly, and production has painfully reached 2 billion tonnes. "Farmers have achieved extraordinary results by almost tripling the world harvest," said Lester Brown, who currently chairs the Earth Policy Institute, a respected Washington research institute. “In a single generation, they have almost doubled cereal production compared to the 11 years that had preceded since the start of agriculture. But now the spring is broken ”. Besides improving yields, another traditional method of boosting production is to increase the area of ​​arable land. But this is no longer possible. As the population increases and the cultivable land is used for the construction of roads or cities - and is depleted due to overexploitation - the amount of land available for each inhabitant of the planet decreases. It has fallen by more than half since 000 [from 1950 to 0,23 hectares per person]. However, food production would feed everyone properly if it were well distributed. It is true that the inhabitants of rich countries eat too much and those of poor countries do not eat enough. But huge amounts of grain are also used to feed cows - and cars. As people get richer, they eat more meat, and slaughter animals are often grain-fed. Thus, it takes 0,11 pounds of grain to produce 14 pounds of beef, and 2 pounds of grain for 8 pounds of pork. Over a third of the world's harvest is used to fatten animals.
Cars have become another concern, since the promotion of green fuels to combat global warming has been encouraged. A “corn rush” started in the United States, with the use of part of the harvest to produce a biofuel, ethanol - thanks to the considerable subsidies of the Bush government which would in this way want to counter the criticism of his refusal to ratify the Kyoto protocol. A single tank of ethanol for a large 4 x 4, recalls Lester Brown, requires as much grain as it takes to feed a person for an entire year. In 2006, the quantity of American corn used to make fuel will be equal to that sold abroad. Traditionally, American exports have helped feed a hundred countries, most of which are poor.

Promote environmentally friendly practices

From next year, the volume consumed by American cars will be higher than that of exports, and the share available to feed poor countries may soon shrink. The existing or planned ethanol production plants in Iowa, the major grain region of the United States, will absorb almost all of that state's crop. The hungry poor will then compete with car owners. A fight lost in advance, if we consider that they already devote 70% of their meager income to food.
Making greener cars and eating less meat would alleviate the problem, but the only long-term solution is to allow poor countries - and especially their most disadvantaged populations - to grow food crops. The best way to do this is to encourage small farmers to favor environmentally friendly crops. Studies by the University of Essex show that it doubles yields. But the world must realize the urgency of the situation. "We are on the brink," warns Lester Brown. “History judges leaders on their ability to face big problems. And for our generation, the big problem is likely to be food security. ”

Geoffrey lean
The Independent on Sunday

http://www.courrierinternational.com/ar ... j_id=66057
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Christophe
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by Christophe » 14/09/06, 11:28

Amazing news ... the start of self-regulation of the earth?
But this may put the "feeders" of humanity in their rightful place.... unless it's a blow to boost prices ...

In any case it will incite maybe the Americans and our society of overconsumption has more intelligence and less mismanagement?

Otherwise, I'm not a specialist, but I think these figures are underestimated: "Thus, it takes 14 kilos of grain to produce 2 kilos of beef, and 8 kilos of grain for 2 kilos of pork."

It is not the pork / beef ratio but rather the quantity of cereals required which seems to me quite low ... or else it is taken in the best of cases (newborns with strong growth ...) ...

Is there a specialist in the room?
Last edited by Christophe the 14 / 09 / 06, 11: 32, 1 edited once.
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freddau
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by freddau » 14/09/06, 11:31

Yes,

agree with you, it may also be to raise the prices ....

I deliver this in gross formwork, after it must be decrypted.
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by Christophe » 14/09/06, 11:36

Well, it seemed to me that L. Brown a little research on econo gave me:
eco-economy
ecoeconomics by Brown

Here and even a subject of you:
https://www.econologie.com/forums/crise-alim ... t1595.html

I guess it's the same right?


Here are 2 other remarks:
Traditionally, American exports have helped feed a hundred countries, most of which are poor.

Yeah it's nice to say that ... but sold at what price? In exchange for an arms contract or a reduction in the debt of the USA, is that it?

History judges the leaders on their capacity to face the big problems. And for our generation, the big problem is likely to be food security.... and energetic "
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by freddau » 14/09/06, 11:47

Yep it's from me ...

Well, I didn't pay too much attention to the fact that it's always the same person .....
They persist in his arguments.

We should also see France, which is also a major exporter of cereals ........

Let's say that in order the need of men is air, water, food, energy.

I'm going to start planting fashionable fashionable cabbage ..... in my garden if it continues.
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by Christophe » 14/09/06, 11:53

freddau wrote:Let's say that in order the need of men is air, water, food, energy.


Exact (these are Maslow's physiological needs) but many people rather put: The cash (the car, the credit ...), the holidays ...... then very far the air, the water, the 'food...
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by Targol » 14/09/06, 12:49

Christophe wrote:
freddau wrote:Let's say that in order the need of men is air, water, food, energy.


Exact (these are Maslow's physiological needs) but many people rather put: The cash (the car, the credit ...), the holidays ...... then very far the air, the water, the 'food...


Yes, even the star'ac, the mobile phone ...

We are in a society that has long since stopped (for the most part) from being hungry, thirsty or cold.
These needs met without effort make us believe that their satisfaction goes without saying.
That is why we allow ourselves to waste these resources which, for others, are so difficult to obtain.

Go show a car wash to an African who has to walk 15km each day to get 20 liters of dubious water for his family of 5.
Then show him a restaurant bin.
To finish him off, show him, finally, the riot of neon lighting in our big cities, to him that a simple refrigerator could save ...

But hey, since, in any case, agricultural production will never arrive on his plate, he can die, everyone doesn't care.
As long as we have our 4x4 and our TV ... : Evil:
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by freddau » 14/09/06, 15:05

I agree with you Targol but ..

If you have water, you have the right to use it within reason, like playing to get wet with water in summer.
It's a mess ........ but good if you already have water.

By cons for 4X4, I would like engraved CO2 on each.

Or do I make double standards ??
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by Woodcutter » 14/09/06, 21:56

Christophe wrote:[...] Otherwise, I'm not a specialist, but I think these figures are underestimated: "Thus, it takes 14 kilos of grain to produce 2 kilos of beef, and 8 kilos of grain for 2 kilos of pork."

It is not the pork / beef ratio but rather the quantity of cereals required which seems to me quite low ... or else it is taken in the best of cases (newborns with strong growth ...) ...

Is there a specialist in the room?
From my years in organic college, I seem to remember that a plant physio teacher with whom we also spoke about ecology had told us one day that the production ratio of a surface of land was 1 to 100 between the plant and animal primary consumer. Basically, if 1000 m2 of agricultural land produces X kg of "edible" plant matter, the same surface will only "produce" (X / 100) kg of edible animal at the same time ...

It is because of this that I find that people who try to eat their steak every day are irresponsible ... :frown: (and in addition they often complain that "the meat is too expensive" ... : roll:)
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by freddau » 26/09/06, 14:50

Since wheat has badly germinated this year, its price has started to grow by 20% since July. It went roughly from 100 to 140 euros per tonne in France. When the Chicago market opened on September 22, a bushel of wheat was 419 cents for delivery in December; it was 390,5 cents a week earlier.



Here is blessed bread for farmers who despaired that the sharp rise in commodity prices does not affect agricultural products at all. In 2005, the average price of wheat even dropped 8%.

Nature has come to the rescue. Too cold in April and May when it takes a little sweetness to multiply the grains, too hot in July then too humid in August when it is necessary to harvest them, the weather has given a stunted harvest in France (34 million tonnes against 37 expected), the leading European producer. It was better neither in Germany, nor in Central Europe, nor in the United States. It is rumored that the weather is also unfavorable in Australia.

Result: the 2006-2007 world harvest could be reduced to 593 million tonnes against 618 million the previous year and 629 million, two years earlier, according to the International Grains Council. And as consumption continues to grow, stocks fell in four years from 165 million tonnes to 117.

Add to this unbalanced market that new consumers may take bread from the mouth of traditional customers. The cows of the former USSR reappear as the standard of living improves and their fattening requires an increasing share of cereals.

The same goes for cars that demand more and more ethanol made from wheat starch. Prices will surely not drop.

Will bakers take the opportunity to raise the baguette? The National Interprofessional Office for Field Crops (Onigc) published a preventive press release on September 14 to remind people that the rise in wheat "can only have a derisory impact on the price of bread", because, whether spelled or wheat, the grain weighs less than 5% in the prices of the bakery.

So don't panic.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0 ... 834,0.html
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