Oil production will remain stable!

[ecorage]

Pic hubbert? What is that !

I very much liked the conclusions of the OPEC meeting:
"The oil producing countries have announced that they will maintain their production for the next year at their current level!"

Well you speak, could they do otherwise as some commentators announced the night before.

There was nothing in the lemon!

[Rulian]

Well yes, at the top of the bell production curve (gausian), has a plateau and it still continues to rise slightly ... until it goes down.

To understand everything about Peak Oil (or Pic de Hubbert in French), see:
http://www.oleocene.org
http://www.peakoil.net(English)

[Christophe]

Simple hypothesis: what if oil deflation was a rumor created by the oil companies themselves in order to drive prices up?

Indeed, never in the course of history have we had 41 proven reserves ... Based on the assumption of the near depletion of resources, the barrel should therefore be very inexpensive ... However, even the oil has already been more expensive, it is not that cheap now ...

But do not complain about expensive fossil fuels are one of the foundations of econology!

[Rulian]

Simple hypothesis: what if oil deflation was a rumor created by the oil companies themselves in order to drive prices up?

A stupid hypothesis which demonstrates two things:

1- you obviously do not keep abreast of oil news. If this were the case you would notice the regular declarations of the majors and the governments, in the West as in the Middle East, which admit a certain problem of drying up of the reserves.

2- I doubt that you took the trouble to read the arguments of the theories of peakoil, in particular those of the ASPO (which places it in 2010 after its last estimates. You should before advancing your arguments not based on reservations proven ...

Indeed, never in the course of history have we had 41 proven reserves ... Based on the assumption of the near depletion of resources, the barrel should therefore be very inexpensive ... However, even the oil has already been more expensive, it is not that cheap now ...

You take the problem wrong. Peakoil is not the complete and almost instantaneous drying up of wells. This is the time when production will decline. And this decline can last a very long time. Prices will not wait to explode.

As for your 41 years of proven reserves I ask to see. 41 years at the current consumption rate, it's impossible. On the other hand it is certain that in 41 years there will always be crude: a few barrels at exorbitant prices.

[Christophe]

1) Thanks for the "moron" What is your analysis to you apart from the copied pasted hypothesis (not necessarily less "stupid") that you see on the net? Who is behind the Aspo? To have such precise figures, it is impossible that there are no tankers or former tankers? Generally oil companies are very discreet about their remaining resources and reserves ... Pkoi in your opinion?

2) Your points 1 and 2 are almost identical and do not break this hypothesis at all ... They do nothing moreover on what we already knew. And this page is one of the first in econology: https://www.econologie.com/articles.php?lng=fr&pg=49 but no I don't know what Hubert's pic is ...

3) In 74, experts said that there were 30 years left ... thus justifying high prices ... Why would the situation be different now?

4) Look at the evolution of oil prices since 98 and everything will see that everything is only lies and speculations and reflect in NOTHING the state of reserves (in 98 we had 5 times more proven reserves?)! I am not sure that the arrival of Bush in power is innocent to this price increase ... Which has STRICTLY NOTHING to do with the scarcity of resources!

5) For the 41 years it is impossible according to the figures of the Aspo obviously ... Whether you like it or not the oil will have there for another 100 years because: we know that the extraction rate of the current well ( and abandoned because more profitable enough) is around 35% ... Corollary: we have already used 1/3 of the "accessible" oil that the land can give at "profitable" prices. But when oil really misses these notions of profitability will push the limits ...

See this page: http://www.manicore.com/documentation/reserve.html



Recovery rate found or considered (on the vertical axis) for 3300 world's oil fields, depending on the tank size (that is to say the amount of oil physically underground), expressed in billions of barrels (along the x axis). 1 159 barrel = liters.

Source Jean Laherrère, Petroconsultants, 1997

6) I repeat in all cases these shenanigans aimed at driving up energy prices are beneficial to alternative sources and in this little game the oil companies may be losing in the medium term ... So I see not even pkoi you insult me ​​...

[Rulian]

1) Thanks for the "moron" What is your analysis apart from the pasted copy of hypothesis (not necessarily less "stupid")

No it is hypotheses are structured, argued, enter into a theoretical model and are the subject of regular international conferences or more and more world energy leaders come to wander ... If that is not enough for you ...

Who is behind the Aspo? To have such precise figures, it is impossible that there are no tankers or former tankers? Generally oil companies are very discreet about their remaining resources and reserves ... Pkoi in your opinion?

Once again you show that you have not bothered to read the sources that I have already indicated. You would have answers to ALL of these questions.

Source Jean Laherrère, Petroconsultants, 1997

The good joke is that this gentleman is one of the founding members of ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil), and has just founded ASPO France: http://aspofrance.org/qui.htm

I will end the debate here. Until you have correctly read the theories of peakoil and who are the authors, I do not see the point of taking the lead.

[nonoLeRobot]

I'm going to put some oil on the fire :

Rulian 1 - Christopher 0

hihi

PS: Jean-Marc Jancovici (alias Manicore) is also part of it

[Rulian]

Don't put the oil back on the fire! Aren't you smoky enough in England?

[Christophe]

Source Jean Laherrère, Petroconsultants, 1997

The good joke is that this gentleman is one of the founding members of ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil), and has just founded ASPO France: http://aspofrance.org/qui.htm
.

But bug !! This is precisely what I said above, you do not even read my answers or what?
ASPO = tanker or former tanker, I didn't even know it was a simple hypothesis that you just confirmed ... so how do you want ASPO to be impartial? Now you think what you want and you can insult whoever you want ... the facts are there ...

Noo I don't see pkoi he has a point since he only says what I said ... That Jancovici is part of it is already more "logical"

[Rulian]

Well, it's not because they are former oil tankers that they lie or manipulate people. Besides, the companies defend themselves for the most part from having reached the non-renewal of their reserve.

I do not see how the CV of the members of ASPO prevents the thesis of the imminence of peakoil from being valid. Besides it is not them that invented the basic theory but Hubbert, responsible in an American major, who had predicted the peak of the wells of the USA for the 70s. At the time everyone did not care about his mouth and now everyone has to admit that he was right.

What ASPO does is simply apply Hubbert's methods to try to predict the world peak. And the latest update says 2010.

But hey, we will not yell either, it will not change anything.