Analyses on anthropogenic global warming

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
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Analyses on anthropogenic global warming




by Christophe » 15/05/09, 11:12

Is global warming antrophique origin? If so how much?

This is what the author of this document, very comprehensive and well illustrated, wanted to try to find out:

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Download here: doubts about the origin of global warming
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by sen-no-sen » 09/01/13, 18:41

Even before its release, the IPCC report is already the target of climate skeptics


The IPCC climate experts, in the midst of drafting the next and eagerly awaited global warming inventory, are defending their working methods more than ever after leaks on the Internet of provisional documents used by their detractors. Lack of transparency ? Conclusions dictated by NGOs? An undervalued role of the sun in global warming? Launched several years ago by "climate skeptics" and consistently rejected by climate experts, the accusations are popping up again on the Web.


http://www.lepoint.fr/science/avant-meme-sa-sortie-le-rapport-du-giec-est-deja-la-cible-des-climato-sceptiques-09-01-2013-1611507_25.php


C.Allegre Is back? : Lol:
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by moinsdewatt » 19/01/13, 20:46

sen-no-sen wrote: ...
C.Allegre Is back? : Lol:


C.Allegre will return by air ambulance Chile?
There was a heart attack.



Claude Allegre has a heart attack in Chile at a scientific symposium
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by Christophe » 19/01/13, 22:43

Pretty unearthing moinsdewatt!
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by Obamot » 20/01/13, 00:58

By plane? After his cardiac evaluation is its carbon accounting that may worsen ...

moinsdewatt wrote:
sen-no-sen wrote: ...
C.Allegre Is back? : Lol:


C.Allegre will return by air ambulance Chile?
There was a heart attack.


For him it is a warming allegro ma non tropo ...

... ok I -> [] file
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by sen-no-sen » 20/01/13, 12:57

moinsdewatt wrote:
sen-no-sen wrote: ...
C.Allegre Is back? : Lol:


C.Allegre will return by air ambulance Chile?
There was a heart attack.



Claude Allegre has a heart attack in Chile at a scientific symposium


Yes thank you, I already know!
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by Christophe » 09/01/14, 20:15

Source and illustrations: http://www.wikistrike.com/article-clima ... 69643.html

Climate: 10 information you probably have not heard

The media treatment of the climate is variable geometry. Here is information retrospectively 10 2013 the year that have not made the major media.


Here's a retrospective of some stories that occurred in 2013, concerning "climate change" and you've probably never heard of.

1. blocked vessels and Northwest passages canceled by early Arctic ice

The 4 June CBC announced that "Four adventurers intend to cross the Arctic to row this summer. Two Canadians and two Irish embark on this adventure, from Inuvik in the Northwest Territories to try to reach Pond Inlet, Nunavut. "According to the Vancouver Sun, it was to highlight the" changes "in the Arctic caused by" global warming. "

Curiously, we did not find news on CBC reporting the cancellation of this attempt due to bad weather, late summer snow squall (or early winter) and the ice that blocked their way ... Obviously in the Globe and Mail, the participants at this crossing claim to have succeeded because they could attract, they say, the public's attention on "the extreme weather conditions that accompany climate change" ... extreme weather conditions that explain failure for centuries of exploitation of the Northwest Passage. But the Globe and Mail did not notice these militants or his readers.

The same disappointment struck the French Charles Hedrich who tried to cross the passage of the Northwest rowing. The French lost her against the clock face the ice and "premature freezing of the Arctic Ocean" was forced to stop mid-September its first global attempt, crossing the mythical crossing the train.

Other examples of ships (yachts, sailboats, rowboats and kayaks) blocked early in late summer in the Arctic.

2. The sea ice at record levels

Al Gore and John Kerry predicted there 5 2013 years in the Arctic would be ice free. You have probably not heard the opposite came true. The year 2013 is the latest news in second place in terms of the largest area of ​​ice ever recorded. This year will probably see the record of all time beating before the end of this season.

Click to enlarge
3. Half of US meteorologists do not believe that man is the main cause of global warming

Nearly half meteorologists and atmospheric scientists do not believe that human activities are the major factor in global warming, according to a survey by the American Meteorological Society (AMS).

The survey of members found that while AMS 52 percent of members of the American Meteorological Society believe that attending a climate change and that was mostly due to human activities, 48 percent of members disagreed.

In addition, the survey found that scientists who professed political opinions "progressive" were much more likely to believe in global warming theory of human origin than those who did not profess these political views.

Note that some "skeptics" like Richard Lindzen of MIT (see below) say although there was a slight increase in the temperature of the planet recently and that man may very well be partly responsible, but that this increase is negligible for now. The mechanisms involved, according to professor of climatology, are too poorly understood to establish credible climate forecasts long term. To claim the opposite can lead at this stage to very expensive decisions to more than doubtful effects.



4. NASA revises past temperatures down

We do not know why, but NASA decided to revise downwards historical temperatures. This is also potentially in breach of quality and control policies imposed to the same NASA. The net effect is to give the impression of a recent warming more important than in previous reports. By cooling the historical data (while not changing the current data), NASA nearly doubled between warming temperatures and 1880 2000 in thirteen years. This would apparently not the first time (see here and here).


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superposed graphs NASA data for global temperature between 1880 and 2000. Red average in his report 2001, blue average in his report 2013.
5. The polar bear population reached unprecedented levels

Not since we believe the herd of polar bears Does were counted in that number: between 20.000 and 25.000, despite a new method of counting. Almost 5000 polar bears should be born around the New Year.

In 2012, a study conducted in northern Canada also revealed that the bear subpopulation whites of the region is stable and healthy. According to the latest study conducted by the research team from the Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut, the estimated size of the subpopulation of Foxe Basin (see his extended below) is 2 580 bear either a comparable number estimated at the beginning of 1990 years, although the annual harvest rates have remained stable in recent years 20. The results of aerial surveys have not provided evidence that climate change negatively affects polar bears in the region of Foxe Basin.

6. No proven link between higher temperatures and increased prevalence of malaria

In 2007, the UN announced that global warming would favor the onset of malaria epidemics (malaria for English):

Global warming threatens millions of people from malaria. [...] The increase in rainfall, temperature and humidity facilitate the spread of mosquitoes that transmit malaria, according to the Report 2007-2008 human development. This could expose to 220 400 million people to malaria, which makes about a million victims annually.
The news was picked up by CBC: "We can also expect that warming temperatures causes an extension of the territory and an increase in disease-carrying insects such as malaria, dengue fever and several kinds viral encephalitis. "The Ontario College of Family Physicians (OCFP) was worried about himself:" Thus, malaria and dengue are now appearing in areas where they were not previously endemic. "

Yet Paul Reiter a French medical entomologist, a researcher at the Pasteur Institute, had already explained: "Malaria in the seventeenth century was an endemic disease in England ...! While the Thames froze in winter ... "

Malaria has been a scourge historic, endemic in many countries in Europe until 1945. Outbreaks occurred in the summer in Finland until the end of the nineteenth century; some epidemics in this country were associated with lethality in 0,85 3%. The largest recent outbreak of malaria has been described in Arkhangelsk (40.000 cases) in 20 and 30 years. This Russian city is located on the White Sea, near the Arctic Circle!

In 2013, a new study published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society taught us that there is no link between the spread of malaria and global warming:

We show that the chances of eradicating malaria significantly increase as the average household size falls below four. There is no link between higher temperatures and increased prevalence of malaria. We propose that household size is an important factor because malaria is transmitted to the night inside.
7. Obama allows that wind farms kill eagles impunity

The US administration now exempts fine wind operators if their facilities were to kill imperial eagle or bald eagle (the emblem of the United States animal). This is to promote the development of so-called renewable energies. A company was recently fined because its turbines were recognized responsible for the death of more volatile. wind farms are found in countries 39 States.

An investigation by the Associated Press earlier in 2013 noted the eagle died around wind farms, and the reluctance of the Obama administration to sue and its willingness to stifle the magnitude of these deaths raptors. The White House is a strong supporter of wind energy presented as a solution to global warming and a cornerstone of the energy plan of President Barack Obama. Many skeptics doubt the usefulness of wind power to fight against the greenhouse gas effects, others point to the high price of energy produced in this way. Quebec will approve in practice more new wind farm construction according to the MEI.

The US government also supports ethanol from corn to reduce dependence on the United States to imported gasoline. In this context, the White House allowed the green industry to make little green things. Another survey of the AP recently reported that ethanol has proved far more damaging to the environment than the politicians promised and much worse than the US government now admits.

8. The oceans do not swallow coral atolls

Remember in 2009, when officials of the Maldives had held a press conference under water to show that their islands flowed because of global warming. Well, a new study shows 2013 they have nothing to fear. Good news ! It must be said that the Maldivian authorities did not seem too worried: they built there recently four new airports and many other resorts.

This study confirms other like Paul Kench of the University of Auckland in New Zealand and Arthur Webb of the University of Suva, Fiji. Their research focused on 27 Pacific islands. During the last sixty years, all - except four - have retained the same size or have grown, some of 20 30 to percent. The researchers do not deny that climate change has an impact on the atolls and very low islands of the Pacific Ocean. But they discovered that these islands were adapting much better than expected. Read also: The oceans rise dangerously, except around the islands.

9. The 2013 year was the year the weather less extreme in the United States since we have such statistics

The year 2013 breaks the record of less tornadoes in the United States, 15% less than the previous minimum. Last year also saw fewer forest fires in the United States since 1984. (See also 2013 - a year with minimal extreme weather events in the US.).


Comment: Perhaps for tornadoes and wildfires in the US, but for the rest of the world, extreme weather events are the new standard:
-Review Of extreme weather events on Earth and cosmic in 2013 (VIDEO)
Natural -Disaster: twice more victims in 2013


10. No global warming for over 17 years

RSS monthly data on the average global temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere from November to October 1996 2013 indicate no global warming for precisely 204 months - the first set of data to complete 17 years suggest that the models used to the catastrophic projections on our climate seem wrong.

Click to enlarge
The measured global temperatures refuse to follow the bullish outlook approached by almost all climate models. Since its first report in 1990, the IPCC predicted that global temperatures increase by an average of 0,2 ° Celsius per decade. But now that the IPCC recognizes that there was no statistically significant increase in global temperatures throughout the past years 16.

In 2013 September issue of the prestigious scientific journal Science, a Canadian team also examined the overestimation of global warming in recent years 20 by computer models. For these researchers, "recently observed global warming is significantly lower than predicted by climate models. This difference could be explained by a combination of errors in the external forcing, the model response to this forcing and internal climate variability. "On 117 models (grouped by gray bars in the charts below), only 3 predicted values ​​in the range of observed temperatures. All other greatly overestimated the warming.


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For Professor Lindzen, the excuse IPCC would explain the lack of warming over the past seventeen years is to say that the heat lurking in the ocean depths. It's just that the confession that these models fail to simulate the heat exchange between the surface layers and the deep ocean. However, this heat exchange plays a key role in the internal natural climate variability and the affirmation of the IPCC that the observed warming can be attributed to man essentially depends on the accuracy of simulations of these models on the variability natural internal climate. Thus, the IPCC admits so controuvée, according to climatologist at MIT, their crucial assumption is totally unjustified.

Finally, while attributing global warming to man, Richard Lindzen points out that the IPCC fails to mention that this warming was tiny and totally compatible with a situation alarming nothing. It is quite amazing to see the contortions that the IPCC is needed to continue promoting the political climate program.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by izentrop » 02/10/16, 11:20

CO2 concentration in the air: the point of no return (MAJ)
According to scientists, our atmosphere seems to have reached a point of no return. "To reduce the concentration of CO2 in the air, it will not be enough to develop renewable energy. We must also find ways to capture the carbon dioxide that we have released into the atmosphere, "says David Black, a professor at Stony Brook University in New York.
Image
http://www.futura-sciences.com/planete/ ... maj-58177/

Permafrost thawing and the associated release of carbon and methane is almost inevitable.
According to the scenario of high concentration of CO2 (RCP8.5) 33 114 to giga tons of carbon should be release by 2100 (with an uncertainty rate of 68%). This leads to further warming of 0,04-0.23 2100 ° C by an increase in 0.38 ° C (0.18-0.78 ° C) by 2200 and 0.42 ° C (0.24-0.78 ° C) by 2300.

The "Climate Web Library", a mine of information http://biblio-climat.fr/estimation-de-l ... limatique/
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Obamot » 02/10/16, 13:40

To demonstrate anything ppm Co2It takes at least a time scale in thousands of years (pardon to Dr. David Black, who surely did not mean that "Scient Izentrop" trying to make him say.)

Screenshot 2016-10-02 to 13.33.17.png
Too bad then, even the approximate blah-blah-blah of Izentrop, who does not understand what he says or what he reads
.... Because if one wants to demonstrate, we must examine the ice ages speaking hundreds of thousands of years and millions:

Screenshot 2016-10-02 to 13.32.32.png
And then we realize that nothing is as obvious in light on a scale of .... just ... 5 years! For Izentrop shall simply read the "scientific" word for it draws blissful and truths .... [...]

Not that I want to say that the global warming amplified by the man would not exist (I am not in the clan of the "denial") but that when one is such an ignoramus, one does not even notice that we regularly say (or get people to say) nonsense by drawing at random from copied / pasted which we do not understand damn nothing (and after Izentrop would still like "Get in position to judge the credibility of others": :D he better take an interest in his first, wouarf-wouarf-wouarf, cultivate your Izentrop garden and eat your "safe" GMOs in silence.) : Mrgreen:

Source: Pr. Vincent Courtillot 2016
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by eclectron » 02/10/16, 18:14

The document Christophe early in the subject is no longer available? (For me anyway!)
I update with this one:
http://www.astrosurf.com/astrocdf67/dossier_divers/climatJC.pdf

Interesting point of view in any case, I continue reading ...

It can burn the Fuel, guys! : Mrgreen:
Slim, y 'has more ...:(
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