Climate: warning signals everywhere red
25 Nov 2012 Le Figaro
Meeting for two weeks in Doha (Qatar), 194 countries will try to lay the groundwork for a new global agreement.
"We do not want our children to live in a country threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet." Barack Obama's little phrase at his first press conference after his re-election put a little bit of pain in his hands. the hearts of thousands of participants at the 18e climate conference that opens Monday for two weeks in Doha, Qatar. "It's like the first rain after a long drought," commented a Reuters reporter. It had been months since the topic of climate change had not been addressed by the US president: the terrible drought that hit the United States during the summer and, especially, Hurricane Sandy contributed to reinstall it in the American calendar. Will this small revival of interest be enough to breathe new life into international negotiations?
At a global level, warning signs continue to arrive from all over the world: Europe, the World Bank, the United Nations Environment Program, scientists ... All are sounding the alarm that if we do not reduce drastically greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane, the rise in temperatures, already noted on a global scale, will worsen. At the current rate (see graph), there is virtually no chance of limiting global warming to around 2 ° C as the international community committed itself to at the Copenhagen summit in 2009. "It is necessary to provide a faster response to climate change and it is possible," said Christiana Figueres, the UN climate officer, a few days ago. The reality seems more gloomy.
The first issue to be addressed in Doha is the start of a second period for the Kyoto Protocol which ends at the end of this year. So far, this agreement is the only legally binding international instrument for reducing GHG emissions in which the European Union and some major industrialized countries have committed themselves. But for this second round, Japan, Canada and Russia have already announced that they will not resign. Only the EU, Australia, Switzerland and Norway have at the moment responded. The commitment, therefore, seems relatively symbolic: these countries indeed represent only about 15% of global GHG emissions. Extending Kyoto remains important, however, to show emerging and developing countries that the industrialized countries continue to assume their historic responsibility for the overflow of CO2 into the atmosphere.
The success of the Doha conference will also be seen in the light of the first steps towards a global climate agreement, the principle of which was also included last year in the Durban agreement (South Africa) . A working group has been set up. He is three years old (up to 2015) to lay the groundwork for the future treaty to enter into force in 2020.
Distribution of efforts
The idea this time is to involve everyone including the United States (who have never ratified Kyoto), but also the so-called major emerging countries of China (now the largest global emitter of GHGs). ), India, Brazil ... The legal framework of the treaty and the distribution of efforts between the states will be two of the main issues at the heart of the negotiations. "Many developing countries would already like to get quantified GHG reduction commitments, but in Doha this is not realistic. We will first continue to mobilize, "commented a European negotiator. Especially since this negotiation takes place in a particularly difficult global economic context.
"Emissions reduction offers tremendous growth opportunities. The transition to a low-carbon economy has everything to start a phase of industrial revolution of creativity and innovation that will contribute greatly to the development of poor countries, "says Nicholas Stern, now a teacher at the London School of Economics in a book (Two economists face climate issues) co-signed with Roger Guesnerie, who chairs the Paris School of Economics.
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