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Winners and losers of the liter of super at 3 euros
Dossier - Producers of agrofuels and organic farmers on the one hand, large retailers and townspeople on the other, what would happen in an overpriced oil world?
Winners
* "Big Oil"
Even after peak oil, the giants of the black gold will continue to make good business for a long time, since "what is rare is expensive" (unless the fight against climate change does not force them to change their business ...) .
* Agrofuel producers
40% of the US corn crop (primarily GMO) finished last year in biofuel refineries. And this is probably only a beginning.
* Gun merchants
Recent reports from the US Department of Defense and the German army point out that the scarcity of oil will increase the risk of war.
* Manufacturers of wind turbines, solar panels and hybrid vehicles
Of course. Except that ... these technologies depend on access to rare metals (gallium, indium or germanium for photovoltaic panels, "rare earths" for permanent magnets of wind turbines, lithium and cobalt for batteries of electric cars). However, their extraction is voracious in energy and the reserves are concentrated in distant countries: China, Australia, South Africa and Chile, in particular.
* Organic farmers in short circuit
They do not follow exactly the same strategy as agrofuel producers, but it will work too, otherwise ...
* Craftsmen and local shops
As for their cousins farmers, their success is guaranteed. No more Saturday afternoons at the supermarket with the big sedan!
* Masters sailboats
Forget planes and cargo ships that eat fuel. And then it would be nice to see the sailing navy reborn, no?
The defeated
* The supermarket
Carrefour, Walmart, etc. : giant hatboxes where we used to buy everything will suffer, that's for sure, since their business model is based on the low-cost transportation of their goods ... and their customers.
* Medium and long distance tourism
The peak oil will obviously hurt very much air transport. Already in 2008, when the barrel was close to the 150 dollars (115 euros), many Western airlines have passed close to the crash. Now that the barrel of Brent is maintained - despite the crisis - above the 100 dollars (77 euros), social plans and cost compression are multiplying again, for example at Air France.
* The relocated industries
For a quarter of a century, we have relocated everything and everything in order to find a cheaper workforce on the other side of the planet. This phenomenon - partly responsible for mass unemployment in Europe - is only possible because transport is still only a small part of the cost of goods. If the price of oil climbs frankly, goodbye probably the made in China, and even the off-season fruits from southern Spain or Italy in beautiful trucks.
* The inhabitants of the cities
And especially those of megacities in the South ... except perhaps if they have chickens, grow vegetables or have "a gun in the toilet [which] is a source of great comfort" (1), as the author notes James Howard Kunstler. If the world's population has doubled since the end of the Second World War, and most of the population now lives in the cities, it is primarily because of the extraordinary improvement in agricultural yields obtained from oil. and mechanization. If oil becomes scarce, everyone will necessarily have to get closer to the land.
(1) Excerpt from The Long Emergency (Grove Press, 2006).