Peak oil production

[York3k2]

Hello everyone, it's been a while.

My TIPE on the Pantone reactor is pretty good, we had 12/20 for lack of experience but hey it was not the easiest subject from this point of view either.

Today, I orient my TIPE towards the estimation of the peak of world oil production predicted by M King Hubbert in 1956. I have no difficulty finding production values, etc. but I find it more difficult to find the exact method used. So I turn to the habitues of forum who would perhaps have more in-depth knowledge on this subject, given its link with econology and the Pantone reactor.

In short: would someone know or guide me to find more details on the mathematical aspect of the Hubbert projection? No matter how hard I look, I can't find much ...

Thanks in advance to all,

York3k2

[freddau]

You have no trouble finding prod values.

Congratulations if they are right

Otherwise, I like the crystal ball as a method

[Christophe]

https://www.econologie.com/annuaire/ener ... -0002.html

[Rulian]

I had my theoretical introduction to PeakOil thanks to the excellent site www.wolfatthedoor.com (check the url on gogol). I remember that it was sufficiently developed, without being stuffy with formulas.

Always take a look at oleocene.org, a French reference site (thanks to their forum). They have a wiki that is running well I think ... but I haven't been looking up close.

Maybe by searching on the ASPO website. (www.peakoil.net). It is THE reference in terms of peakoil, but unfortunately not in terms of web creation ... In English, very clutter ... compulsory motivation.

Look in the links of the forum oleocene, they must list other community sites of "peakniks" abroad, many are English-speaking. Must be some good resources to draw from this side too.

If with that you do not write us a report of the fire of god, then we can do nothing for you.

Good luck.

[nonoLeRobot]

Well, it's not to insist but in the "full please", Jean Marc explains how to estimate the oil reserves (with the proven and unproven reserves etc). If you don't have the book, you might get some info on his site: http://manicore.com, it's pretty messy, don't hesitate to use the search function at the bottom right.

Good luck

[Rulian]

I make a little diversion of subject (if even the mods get started, where are you running ). I leave the strict subject of TIPE and the theoretical models of Hubbert to share with you a bright article from Devoir (Quebec) on probable reasons for the abnormally bearish behavior of the barrel price since the end of the summer.

http://www.ledevoir.com/2006/10/24/121154.html

For those like me who are a little obsessed with the oil shortage, this is sure to interest you. We will talk about it again in December (see article). (link found on the forum oleocene)

[York3k2]

Well thank you everyone, I'm going to hasten to look at all of this.

If not, would anyone know if this method is being applied in other areas, or rather to model the behavior of other resources whatever they are?

Thanks in advance to all.

York3k2

[York3k2]

Hello everyone, here I am again, wireworm coming out of his tunnel.

I'm quietly advancing my TIPE on the peak oil production (I find, for the moment a peak around 2015 for so-called conventional oil). I indeed managed to gather all the theoretical information that I needed. On the other hand, I now face the problem of obtaining raw values ​​of world production. The values ​​that I was able to obtain (on the BP site for those that would be interested) only extend between 1965 and 2006 which limits the precision of my calculations.

Would anyone know or I would be likely to find older values?

Thank you all for your help and support, I hope you liked the TIPE on the Pantone reactor last year,

York3k2

[Rulian]

I believe that by looking for reliable values ​​on oil production and stocks, you are making a mistake. These values ​​do not exist, so to speak. Either the estimates are bad, or the producers (countries and companies) lie coldly.

You should also devote a chapter to the question of the validity of geological data in oil and gas, because it is a fundamental question. It is interesting to note that the forecasts are delicate and the financial and stock market interest for a company or a producing country to strongly inflate the amount of these reserves.

As for old values ​​... I don't know. Maybe on the OPEC website? (www.opec.com)

Do not forget to send us a copy of your TIPE on the Pantone and the next one on peak oil. It can be very interesting and a little feedback would be nice.

A little overview on the reaction of your teachers and your friends to the announcement of the imminent approach of the peak could also be very interesting. In general, the first reaction is complete blockage. Refusal to admit the frightening truth. There are also psycho and socio subjects around that on the forum oleocene.

Good luck.

[York3k2]

Hello everyone,

thanks to Rulian, I would take a quick tour on the OPEC website.

As for the validity of the values, I am only interested in production data and not in reserves. Indeed, the principle of my method is to determine the total production from past production assuming that we can model the curve of total production of oil (or another resource) by a logistic function. In this case, it suffices to have about a third of the cycle to obtain good modeling. Unfortunately, 1965 is a little fair and older data would be of great help.

That is all,
York3k2

PS My TIPE has been available since last summer