Psycho: getting into Macron's mind (and politicians, leaders, decision-makers ...)

[Christophe]

Very good article from Cervo & Psycho: https://www.cerveauetpsycho.fr/sr/psych ... -15435.php to put in relation with the behavior of Macron VS Gilets Jaunes ... Attention, I am posting this not to find excuses for the flippancy of the government but just to explain "their" operation ... in part!

Psycho Citizen: Where does the solitude of power come from?

Our brain tends to believe that others share our view of things. That is why politicians would overestimate voters' understanding of their proposals, and isolate themselves mechanically ...

Could the government have seen the movement of yellow vests coming? The enlargement and revaluation in 2018 of the "energy check" as well as the other measures of the "climate solidarity package" suggest that the need for countervailing measures had been anticipated. We know today that these measures were insufficient to prevent the anger of the citizens, and it is tempting to point the finger at the lack of lucidity of the political leaders. The discontent of the inhabitants traveling by car and having a modest income was, they say, easy to predict.

But was she really? A general problem of human psychology, which also affects politics, comes from the fact that we tend to think that others share our opinions. More often than not, we have forgotten how we have formed an opinion and feel that we are seeing the world in an objective way. We think then that others will have the same vision as us. Thus, the more we support a policy, the more we are unable to imagine that we can not approve it.

Psychological illusion

This inability to understand that others do not share our beliefs can lead elected officials to overestimate the degree of voter understanding or buy-in. A good illustration of this problem comes from a study in which a participant had to guess a song to another participant simply by typing the rhythm of the song. Participants who chanted this rhythm (and therefore had the song well in mind) felt that listeners would have a success rate of 50%. In fact, the success rate was 2,5%! And it was not because participants overestimated their sense of rhythm. The results were the same if they watched a video of another person while knowing the song. They simply did not understand that the auditor's situation was different from theirs.

Similar mistakes occur in public policy making, especially when the decision-making process does not involve external people. A recent study looked at the effectiveness of SMS in enrolling parents in an educational program, which allows them to better track the results and attendance of their children in school to reduce the risk of failure. school. Parents of students were randomly divided into three groups. Those in the first group received a standard message that they could sign up for the program by going to a website. Those in the second group received a simplified message allowing them to register by simply replying "Start". For the third group, the registration was automatic: an SMS was sent to the parents to inform them that they could unsubscribe by simply replying "Stop".

The results showed a very powerful effect of automatic registration: the enrollment rates were 1% for the standard message, 8% for the simplified message and 96% for the autoenrollment message (even though people were free to refuse).

But the most interesting part is about how 130 policy makers (eg experienced teachers and administrators) have predicted the effectiveness of each approach. They anticipated the respective adoption rates of 39%, 48% and 66%, that is, they overestimated the standard group participation rate of 38 points and underestimated the group's efficiency. automatic 31 points! A difference that counts, because children of automatically enrolled parents then had higher school results and a lower failure rate of 10% than other groups.

Who knew the energy checks?

Thus, decision makers overestimate the level of parental involvement and do not understand that parents may not want to make even modest efforts to enroll. More generally, managers often overestimate public interest and involvement in their programs. They have probably spent a lot of time thinking about their policies and fail to contemplate that most voters do not share (at all!) Their level of interest in the issue.

In the case of yellow vests, the designers of the energy voucher may have been persuaded that this measure would be known to all and perceived as sufficient to support households in precarious situations. They probably did not imagine that most voters would ignore everything and that many potential recipients of the check would not use it. A classic social aid, since 36% of people who are entitled to active solidarity income (RSA socle) do not take the steps to collect it, as well as 21 34% of people eligible for universal health coverage.

In its report on the behavioral approach of political decisions, the Behavioral Insight Team, a pioneering English organization in the field, proposes to strengthen the participation of people outside the governmental decision-making process: elected officials, trade unionists, citizens drawn by lot in citizen juries or simply junior members of the administration who, anonymously, would have the means to express divergent opinions. In short, loneliness is good for no one, neither for politicians, nor for citizens. Sooner or later, one's opinions must be compared to those of others. Better to do it before making a decision!

[Ahmed]

A much simpler and more likely explanation is that the public fully understands that in a framework designed to generate growing inequalities and contempt that goes with (well) with, these fancy measures intended to endorse the device are rightly perceived as Vaseline ...

[Exnihiloest]

We can see psychology as a science, yes. Except that she is unable to predict the behavior of individuals. At least, contrary to climatology, it does not make a prediction either. But when it comes to providing explanations a posteriori, there we see it, it's easy.
Their text boils down to: "some people do not understand that others may not understand them". Finely thought out? ...

What banality! Only on this forum, we have it all the time, it's the old adage of "seeing noon at your door". The same state of mind which made that politicians did not understand that these people, who became the GJ, did not think like them, also animates you when you call "assholes" the initiators of the petition against energy transition: you don't see how we could be against energy transition because your reference is your only vision, established once and for all. Yet there are good reasons for this including ecological reasons.

The solution is not given by the psycho but by the philo: it is the exercise of the change of point of view, exercise very difficult since it consists in putting oneself in the skin of the one who does not think like you, for to understand one's point of view rather than sweep one's ideas away from it. We saw that Macron had difficulties with that. Not sure he's making the mistake again, I think he's smart enough to learn from it.

[Janic]

We saw that Macron had difficulties with that. Not sure he's making the mistake again, I think he's smart enough to learn from it.

in politics, learning lessons means getting around the present difficulty and continuing as before. "From now on and until now, it will be ... as usual."

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

We can see psychology as a science, yes. Except that she is unable to predict the behavior of individuals.

I predicted the argumentation mode of the speech ...

But you're right psychology does not explain everything.
Private interests can also explain a lot: and here I'm not just talking about the current situation but about any relationship.

There is the scenery and the backside of the scenery.
Sometimes it's psychological but sometimes it's also low material: and often both.

And often all in the service of one thing the Power: that it is in friendship, in love, at work, in politics ... in human relations in general.

Dominant, dominated, masters, slaves, strong, weak, rich, poor, you add a little sex and you have the ingredients of the sauce.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

We saw that Macron had difficulties with that. Not sure he's making the mistake again, I think he's smart enough to learn from it.

in politics, learning lessons means getting around the present difficulty and continuing as before. "From now on and until now, it will be ... as usual."

We often come back to the Cheetah: so that everything changes everything must start again as before.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

The solution is not given by the psycho but by the philo: it is the exercise of the change of point of view, exercise very difficult since it consists in putting oneself in the skin of the one who does not think like you, for to understand one's point of view rather than sweep one's ideas away from it.

We saw that Macron had difficulties with that. Not sure he's making the mistake again, I think he's smart enough to learn from it.

Interesting and optimistic conjecture ....

He could have done it this week.

But it would have been under pressure: so psychologically unacceptable even unthinkable or even inconceivable in his case.

We can say that people change or, at least, evolve.

Is this part of his psychological AND material schemas (WHO are his generous initial donors) ???

to be continued...

Re-reading Pascal would not be uninteresting on the subject
http://www.ac-grenoble.fr/PhiloSophie/l ... rands1.htm

[Ahmed]

Nico239, you write:

Is this part of his psychological AND material schemas (WHO are his generous initial donors) ???

The psychological aspect is well described by Pascal: one of the rewards of the "superior" agents of the system is the exaltation of narcissism; the main religions and spiritualities all warn against the ego, but structural atheism lets go in this area, by definition ...
ET is important: the role of politics is to serve as an interface between a fictional power (that of the People) that is expressed from time to time by elections (a choice is made within the political oligarchy) and a real power (who finances and supports them through its media), which is the economic power. If one understands this, one also understands that economic determinisms leave latitude to a president (whoever he may be) than in the accommodation of their application: to spare the susceptibility of the voters sufficiently (we see that the bar has not been very high in this field since a lot of presidential terms!) while passing the reforms favorable to the maximization of the financial flows (thus also to the oligarchy in general); the antinomian nature of the exercise explains the latent conflictuality that has been expressed openly recently ** with the movement of yellow vests.

* Decreasingly in effectiveness according to the amount of revered gods.
** The recent character coincides with the relative decrease of the minor flow towards the lower and above average class which makes unbearable income inequality now unbearable.

[Grelinette]

I wonder :

This is news with Macron's latest announcements on the (very relative) valuation of the remuneration of smicards, small pensions, lower taxes, etc.

On the web are a series of meticulous analyzes of these measures that explain the ins and outs, the meaning and consequences of each word, and some analysts (including specialists) claim that it is the powder in the eyes.

- That is, there is a real and profound schism on the interpretation of the effects and consequences of economic mechanisms,
- either, it is a political strategy that seeks to convey reassuring information urgently, hoping that it will have real and lasting effects of appeasement,
- either, it is a deep cynicism which consists in saying "in any case the people will not understand anything, it will pass",
- or, it is the reflex application of measures taught in political school: "For such and such a problem ... do that ...",
- or, it is the application of measures that reassure only the supports (financial, political, ...) of this policy
- is ...

??

The news comes back to some old anthology policy measures that had produced effects contrary to their purpose, and produced a very strong opposition, while this had been predicted by informed opponents.

For example, the CPE (first job contract) and the CNE (new employment contract) in 2006, set up a few months in 2006 by the prime minister at the time, Dominique de Villepin. At the time, many economists, sociologists and politicians (including on the same side as the minister) feared a rapid uprising of the employees concerned, and had alerted in vain the minister who had remained upright in his boots up to quickly throw in the towel a few months later ...

I had in particular heard a very humorous interview of a boss and politician of the time (Charles Beigbeder, presidential candidate of the medef so support of the government of the time) who had explained that during the presentation of these measures by the minister and his advisers to a meeting of great bosses, he had spoken to express his fears about the effects of these contracts, to which he had been violently put in his place by the advisers of the minister who had asked him write a letter of apology to the Minister for his intervention, then send a formal and formal letter of apology to the Minister .... ^^

[Ahmed]

If you read carefully my previous message, you will find elements of answer to your question ...