The latest figures and weather consequences of global warming

[sen-no-sen]

"After 2030, it will be too late".

It seems to me that it is too late since 10 years now ... But reassure us, with the widespread collapse the issue of global warming will be settled in a few weeks!

[Christophe]

Macron has just used the term "climate battle" mentioned above in this subject ...

[Remundo]

Croncron will have no influence, the battle may be launched, but the war is already lost.

in my opinion, it's just to annoy the US a little bit that it goes on this ground. A diplomatic game.

[Christophe]

Probably ... or to coax the people to put in place new (eco) taxes ...

A detailed article on macron's position: https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde ... 68409.html

It takes 3500 billion dollars a year

It's not much in fact, just 2 times the French debt ...

[Christophe]

A shockingly simple solution to finance the fight against global warming: http://www.journaldelenvironnement.net/ ... ment,88729

[Bardal]

Well, it's outrageously simple, actually, but not completely stupid ... It remains to make the decision ... and it seems clear to me that Trump is not the only one to prefer speculation to the fight against global warming. ..

There is another scandalously simple solution; this is called the carbon tax (at least 30 € / Tco2), ie 30 € per tonne of hydrocarbon consumed, 40 € per tonne of coal ... There is no eagerness to implement it ...

What is missing most is a political will, not money ...

[Ahmed]

Climate change is only one of the results of the "good" functioning of the system, how could a change in consequences appear without abandoning the causes?
The idea that we should spend a lot of money to reverse the course of things is typical of the immanent reasoning (which is inside the system and therefore can not validly criticize it): by stimulating the activity supposed to allow the pseudo struggle, we are at least sure of one thing, that it will strengthen the cause ...

[moinsdewatt]

Global warming: + 5 ° C if nothing is done

By Elena Sender the 15.12.2017

A new analysis of climate models shows that the most likely global warming could be even worse than the IPCC had predicted.

"If the (CO2) emissions follow a usual scenario, there is a 93% chance that global warming will exceed 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century", approaching 5 ° C. This is the alarming conclusion of a new statistical study carried out by two researchers Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Standford, California (United States) published by Nature. Their results suggest that in the temperature range proposed by the most pessimistic models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this would be the highest value that should be taken into account, and not the average.

Climate models are algorithms that work from physical equations simulating the behavior of the atmosphere and the oceans. They are used to predict future global warming for a given increase in the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. "There are forty or so global climate models which all project different levels of global warming for a given change in greenhouse gas concentrations, explains Patrick Brown, co-author of the study, mainly because there is no is no consensus on how best to model certain aspects of the climate system ". The most pessimistic of the scenarios, simulated by the models in the 5th IPCC report is called RCP (representative concentration pathway) 8,5. It corresponds to the prolongation of current CO2 emissions and projects from 2081 to 2100 a range of possible temperature increase between + 2,6 ° C and + 4,8 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels (1860).

The models that best simulate the current period tend to project, for the future, a warming close to 5 ° C!

Which of these two extremes is more likely to prove correct if CO2 emissions do not fall? This is the question that Brown and Caldeira wanted to answer. Their hypothesis: the models which are the most able to project the future are those which must also be the most able to simulate the current climate, or of the near past, according to recent satellite observation data. "It makes sense that the models that are most successful at simulating today's observations are the most reliable models for tomorrow," says Caldeira. The two researchers therefore compared the performance of the different models, fed by recent satellite observations of the current atmosphere. Then the most reliable models were run to obtain future projections until 2100. Result: the models which best simulate the current period tend to project, for the future, a warming close to 5 ° C! The upper end of the RCP 8,5 scenario.
...................

https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature- ... ien_119191

[Christophe]

https://www.popsci.com/evidence-climate-change-is-real

Climate change is often treated as a political issue, but it should not be.

The facts are these: The climate of our planet is changing the pace of climate change.

Unless you're a supercomputer, you'll find it almost impossible to keep an eye on every single indicator of climate change. Here are a few people who use the planet:

For more, check out this story on how we know climate change is happening.

1. CO2 in the atmosphere

Where to check: Scripps Institution of Oceanography / Mauna Loa Observatory

The latest: 405.67 ppm

Why it matters: Carbon dioxide made up 81 percent of the United States' greenhouse gas emissions in 2014. Fossil fuels and certain chemical reactions produce this odorless, colorless gas-a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere. Despite that CO2 CO2 emissions from soil, forests, and the ocean, industrial-era emissions mean that COXNUMX levels are the highest in millions of years.

What will help: Reducing fossil fuels is the number one way to reduce atmospheric CO2. Energy efficiency, carbon capture, and market-based controls are among the most effective measures to curb carbon dioxide concentrations.

Who ranks the alarm: Thermal equilibria of the atmosphere with a distribution of relative humidity (Manabe and Wetherald, 1967)

Learn more: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (US EPA); US Climate Extremes Index (NOAA); The Keeling Curve (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Global Carbon Project.

EPA

2. Droughts
Wildfire
Measured in: DO-D4 ("abnormally dry" to "exceptional drought")

Where to check: US Drought Monitor

The latest: 12.2 percent of the United States is currently impacted by drought, with 0.34 percent of the United States currently in a D-3 "extreme drought." 89 million people in the United States are currently impacted.

Why it matters: Drought-a prolonged period of dry weather-occurs when there is an imbalance between evaporation and precipitation. It's the real-world consequence of rising temperatures and can have devastating impacts on human health, food availability, animals, and soil.

What will help: It is impossible to directly prevent a drought, especially since it is closely related to shorter-term climate oscillations, as well. Water conservation and planning are the only ways to mitigate drought impacts. However, more balanced precipitation and evaporation make drought less likely. You guessed it-greenhouse gas reduction will help in the long term.

Who ranks the alarm: Meteorological drought (Palmer, 1965)

Learn more: Historical Palmer Drought Indices (NOAA); National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska - Lincoln); National Integrated Drought Information System (Drought.gov)

Forest Service Northern Region

3. Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL)

Measured in: mm (millimeters) anomaly

Where to check: NASA

The latest: The current rate of change of the global mean level is a rise of 3.4 mm / year.

Why it matters: Melting ice and a warming ocean. Though it is closely related to temperature, it is closely related to temperature. Sea levels rose steadily throughout the 20th century, leaving coastal areas more vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, and salt water seeping into freshwater aquifers and affecting plant and animal habitats.

What will help: Three words: Reduce greenhouse gases.

Who rank the alarm: Ice melting, sea level rise, and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ° C global warming could be dangerous (Hansen et al.)

Learn more: Is Sea Level Rising? (National Ocean Service / NOAA); CU Sea Level Research Group (University of Colorado - Boulder); Global Average Absolute Sea Change Level, 1880-2014 (Open Knowledge International)

4. Temperatures

Measured in: ° F (degrees Fahrenheit) or ° C (degrees Celsius)

Where to check: NOAA / NCEI (US | World)

The latest: 2016 was the hottest year ever recorded, with 1.69 ° F above average reaching temperatures above the 20th-century average.

Why it matters: Temperature is not just a major effect of global climate change-it's also like droughts, typhoons, hurricanes, wildfires, and habitat changes. Human health and food are also associated with temperature.

What will help: Reducing greenhouse gases is the easiest way to drive down global temperature.

Who ranks the alarm: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air (Arrhenius, 1896)

Learn more: US and Global Temperature (US EPA); US Climate Extremes Index (NOAA); HadCRUT4 (University of East Anglia); Temperature Monitoring FAQ (NOAA)

Pexels

5. Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Measured in: ° C (degrees Celsius) anomaly

Where to check: NOAA / NCEI Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ESST)

The latest: The average SST in 2016 was the warmest ever recorded, averaging 0.75: ° C than last century's average.

Why it matters: Our oceans absorb heat, and the more they absorb, the warmer they get. This does not affect marine life, disrupting fish populations, fueling algal blooms, and killing coral. Higher sea surface temperatures also create more atmospheric water vapor. In turn, more droughts, and disrupted storm patterns.

What will help: The less heat the oceans must absorb, the cooler they'll be. There is only one way to accomplish that: Reduce greenhouse gases.

Who rank the alarm: Temporal coherence in North Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns (Namias and Born, 1970)

Learn more: Sea Surface Temperature Image Archive (Rutgers University); MODIS Satellite Sea Temperature (NASA); Sea Surface Temperature Trends (US EPA)

Los Alamos National Laboratory

6. Arctic and Antarctic Ice Extent

Measured in: sq km (square kilometers) in which there is at least 15 percent ice

Where to check: Sea Ice Index (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

The latest: In January 2017, the Arctic sea was extended 13.4 million sq km-1.3 million sq k less than the 1981-2010 mean for January. The Antarctic Sea was 4.0 million sq km-0.6 million sq km less than the 1981-2010 mean for January.

Why it matters: The polar ice caps have existed for millions of years. Not only are they a reliable indicator of climate change, but they reflect sunlight. That high albedo (reflectivity) helps deflect solar radiation, cooling off Earth. As the ice caps shrink, they stop cooling the poles. The lesser ice at the poles, the faster global warming will occur. In addition, the ice caps interact with animals and influence far-away weather. And as ice caps melt, they increase sea levels around the world.

What will help: You know the score by now. The fewer greenhouse gases, the more protected our polar ice caps.

Who ranks the alarm: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster (Mercer)

Learn more: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum (NASA); Current State of the Sea Ice Cover (NASA); PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Reanalysis Volume (Polar Science Center)

[Christophe]

Probably ... or to coax the people to put in place new (eco) taxes ...

As for example the price of fuels that flamed at January 1er ...

There are currently up to 45 cents difference between the Lorraine and Luxembourg diesel!

I think I've never seen so much difference since 13 years (but I do not compare every week either ...) ...

Long live the Ripoublique !!

https://carbu.com/belgique/index.php/me ... bourg/LU/0