One last point to qualify your certainties after I stop (because I agree with you anyway).
The figures given by Aspo are given with current technologies and profitability calculations. More expensive oil and the evolution of extraction technology can (re) make profitable and therefore exploitable:
- wells abandoned for decades: we talked about it a few months ago about a Texan well abandoned in the 1910s or 20s and put back into service in 2004 I believe
- discovered deposits not included in the current resource figures because they are not considered profitable or exploitable.
- deposits that have not yet been discovered ... especially in the polar regions (Alaska, Antarctica and the Canadian Far North) whose discovery and especially exploitation will be favored by global warming ...
And I'm not even talking about the exploitation of methane hydrates ... that only oil tankers can consider ...
This, with the figures of 35% of the current extraction rate of Jancovici, make me think that we have much more in the 100 years of oil ... and much more gas. That's all ... and too bad for the planet, we will have looked for it!
ps: nono if you don't give me a point for that i will ban you !!
Oil production will remain stable!
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écono dit: - wells abandoned for decades: we talked about it a few months ago about a Texan well abandoned in the 1910s or 20s and put back into service in 2004 I believe
thanks to new extraction processes by injection of carbon dioxide, water or solvent. The water injection allows a greater daily extraction but a much faster drying up. The most glaring example today is the oil field of Gawar, in Saudi Arabia, which is declining visibly.
- deposits that have not yet been discovered ... especially in the polar regions (Alaska, Antarctica and the Canadian Far North) whose discovery and especially exploitation will be favored by global warming ...
these deposits would be of bad qualities: tars, asphalts, extra heavy oils among others.
This, with the figures of 35% of the current extraction rate of Jancovici, make me think that we still have a lot in the 100 years of oil
All the experts self-employed are less optimistic than you ..
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lau wrote:All the experts self-employed are less optimistic than you ..
I'm still going to drive the point home, but no expert can estimate this by not working, directly or indirectly, near or far with the tankers ...
So proclaiming yourself independent is a bit easy ... A good concrete example is IFP, see http://www.ifp.fr
I quote :
"The French Petroleum Institute (IFP) is an independent center for industrial research and development, training and information in the fields of petroleum, natural gas and the automobile, whose activities cover the whole of hydrocarbon chain: exploration, production, refining, petrochemicals, engines and use of petroleum products.
IFP’s vocation is to innovate and develop technologies that will allow the community and the hydrocarbon and automotive industry to achieve sustainable growth that respects the environment. "
But yes, we believe very strongly ...
Good stop now ... please do not raise me
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I don't even see why you are having a controversy.
In any case, tankers are motherfuckers, on this point, we can still agree.
It is also difficult to know what is going on, since the oil sector is as transparent as a slice of ham .
In short, all that to say that it is useless to argue, since we do not know much especially in terms of exploration since I have the impression that despite knowledge, it's like looking for a needle in a haystack. She is somewhere but where ??
In any case, tankers are motherfuckers, on this point, we can still agree.
It is also difficult to know what is going on, since the oil sector is as transparent as a slice of ham .
In short, all that to say that it is useless to argue, since we do not know much especially in terms of exploration since I have the impression that despite knowledge, it's like looking for a needle in a haystack. She is somewhere but where ??
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freddau wrote:
In any case, tankers are motherfuckers, on this point, we can still agree.
It is also difficult to know what is going on, since the oil sector is as transparent as a slice of ham .
Well that's what I'm trying to say to Rulian (telling him that the guys from Aspo are not necessarily impartial) but he trusts them with their eyes closed ... Good stop the controversy!
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Re: Oil production will remain stable!
Anyone have an update of the famous (too?) Hubert curve?
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Re: Oil production will remain stable!
It will not be easy to concretize this curve, we know too much the outcomes
Stephan Silvestre: "The Stone Age did not end with a shortage of stones. The Oil Age will not end with a lack of oil." had prophesied Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Minister of Oil from 1962 to 1986.
Read more at http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/nouv ... HrfPgBE.99
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Re: Oil production will remain stable!
Evolution of oil demand by region of the world between 2004 and 2030 (therefore estimated "before" the crises)
Weird figures for 2004 because I thought we were around 90 million barrels / day worldwide ??
Example of what's left (at least) in Norway:
Weird figures for 2004 because I thought we were around 90 million barrels / day worldwide ??
Example of what's left (at least) in Norway:
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Re: Oil production will remain stable!
izentrop wrote:It will not be easy to concretize this curve, we know too much the outcomes
Nice article ... but this argument in the introduction makes me smile gently:
The reason: strong growth in sales of electric vehicles.
Talking about strong growth, when we start from an almost zero level, makes no sense ... except speculative!
Otherwise enough agreement on the substance of this mini interview ...
On the other hand in the short term the oil so inexpensive could be very dangerous for the world economy!
Let me explain :
Oil companies, like all major companies, systematically use bank loans (tax optimization because they still have liquidity ...) But with such low prices: oil debt could no longer be repaid!
The bitter banksters have, as in 2008 (well as "always" rather), created derivatives on the oil debt ... just to smoke a max of small customers ...
This could therefore be, soon, the trigger of the most serious financial crisis that humanity is known ... many know it and anticipate ... Putin is not at war for nothing currently ...
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