The GDP BUG of World GDP

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The GDP BUG of World GDP




by Christophe » 01/12/06, 17:51

While doing ongoing research on GDP I came across it:

Image

The great crises are in the ... hollows ... disturbing isn't it?
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Re: The BUG of the global GDP growth




by AVEVA » 03/12/06, 13:48

The great crises are in the ... hollows ... disturbing isn't it?


Why "disturbing"? I would say: logical but worrying because not anticipated by the rulers, ignored by ordinary people who let themselves live and rely on the government as if it were their father!
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by Christophe » 03/12/06, 13:55

Uh ... what is this logic in?

"Buy (stocks) at the sound of the cannon?" Is that what you call logic?

Look in the "subject" here is what I "worked" on the day before yesterday:
https://www.econologie.com/forums/historique ... t2717.html
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economie




by AVEVA » 03/12/06, 15:39

When the price of oil increases the price of raw materials does the same (it takes oil to extract minerals etc.) hence a slowdown of the economy (crisis) It is not disturbing it is logical, still than ! it is not mathematical !!
an economist will say:
the increase in oil prices generates petrodollars therefore investments from producing countries and the economy starts again…

As for "buying stocks to the sound of the barrel (and selling to the sound of the bugle)" this is not exactly logic but opportunism of the same nature as when the interest rate of the savings bank increases the booklets fill up and they empty out when the rate decreases, savers looking for the best performing product to place their savings.
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Re: economy




by Christophe » 03/12/06, 15:54

AVEVA wrote:When the price of oil increases the price of raw materials does the same (it takes oil to extract minerals etc.) hence a slowdown of the economy (crisis) It is not disturbing it is logical, still than ! it is not mathematical !!


Benvi is what I tend to think but ... the on this curve is not precisely ... the reverse?

Because the positioning of the crises are ... in the troughs and not before the falls ... or else this graph is badly done because looking in detail: except for 1973 (or "it sticks": the crisis is before the fall. .. except the black point is badly indicated) .. for other crises the fall is well "before" the crisis.

And it is precisely the crisis that would tend to boost the economy ... Here is THE bug ... : Mrgreen:
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by zac » 03/12/06, 16:25

Christophe wrote:"Buy (stocks) at the sound of the cannon?" Is that what you call logic?


Hello

yes it makes sense.

The average saver is cowardly (otherwise he would not be saving); when the crisis comes he buys stone or gold, causing the prices of companies to drop below their real values.

After the crisis the bisness starts again and these sheep buy at any cost, causing prices to soar (beyond the real value); it's time to sell, go on holiday and wait for the next crisis : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

@+
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by AVEVA » 06/12/06, 11:40

message deleted
Last edited by AVEVA the 07 / 12 / 06, 09: 58, 1 edited once.
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by Christophe » 06/12/06, 11:43

AVEVA wrote:Can you hear the sound of the cannon or the sound of the bugle?
What is your opinion on this extract from AFP?


Source? URL?
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