Economic analyzes on the passage from 90 km / h to 80 km / h in France ...

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

Oh well I did not know but the second subject is on the 80 on the roads ... pile in the subject.

I do not know if I can ask the question in this subject but I would like a mathematician to come to my rescue ....

I have the intuition, without any proof, that the profitability of a radar falls in time.

Attention we do not focus on what the radars report.

But what A ONE RADAR reports, placed at a place X over time.

My intuition (which is perhaps wrong) is that one day the system will come up against a wall of unprofitability.

Why the current headlong rush is to multiply the new radars to keep profitable profitability but until when?

It would be interesting to know the profitability of all radars in analytic accounting.

Besides, it is a pity that the drivers do not understand that they can easily kill the system.

What would happen if the motorists scrupulously respected all regulations without being caught and drastically dropping the revenues of the radars ...

That would be nice no?

[sen-no-sen]

At what price of the liter of petrol will the company begin to decline ....

I do not mean society: the "displacement" on which our economic development, tourism, etc. is based.

Uh is the subject of C in the air (redif) right now .... it's good

And well the record price of the barrel of brent was reached the 02 July 2008 with 144 Dollars / barrel, two months before the banking and financial crisis of autumn 2008.
So basically from 140 $ it starts to sting the economy ...


* The said crisis was initiated by the third oil shock, following the conventional peak oil 2005.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

And at the price of the liter in euros?

[perseus]

Hello,

Oh well I did not know but the second subject is on the 80 on the roads ... pile in the subject.

I do not know if I can ask the question in this subject but I would like a mathematician to come to my rescue ....

I have the intuition, without any proof, that the profitability of a radar falls in time.

[...]

I ask myself exactly the same question.
Without going into a paranoid logic of saying that all this is to extract more money from us, the “radar” system costs money in terms of investment and load.
Not only the radar, but I imagine that there is the purchase, the maintenance, the recourse to providers, a whole backoffice of computer management and still some people dedicated to that. The logic is that the system is designed to be able to at least self-finance if it does not bring money.
But the closer the result (respect for speed) gets to the objective, the greater the risk that "profitability" becomes a deficit. What happens if the "accountant" shows up and says: "Chief, given the improvement in speed compliance, the profitability of the system collapses, either we reduce speeds to increase our customer base, or we reduce the wing, ie the State finances the system "... (I caricature a little I'm aware of it)

As far as road safety is concerned, I have to admit that I have a hard time forming an opinion as to the relevance of the measure and I have the impression that I am missing indicators that would help me in that.
Likewise on the question you raise nico239 which goes into the economic dimension, but I would be curious that one day full figures emerge on this subject.

@+

[Leo Maximus]

... Do not worry, this is increasing.

Bah ... no, it's gone down again for a few months. Road mortality is down here and the trend is confirmed:

http://www.securite-routiere.gouv.fr/co ... l_2018.pdf

Consequence of the rise in the price of fuels? Probably yes, in part.

Now, the number of victims per km traveled may be rising ...

The questions I asked here or elsewhere I do not know the end of the oil will it resurface earlier than expected.
Not the end of oil as a resource but the end of economically sustainable oil by corporations ....
At what price of the liter of petrol will the company begin to decline ....

There is no reason for the end of the oil to end the car. All the builders work in this direction.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

... Do not worry, this is increasing.

Bah ... no, it's gone down again for a few months. Road mortality is down here and the trend is confirmed:

Well, if .... the price of carburetors goes up again ...

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

The questions I asked here or elsewhere I do not know the end of the oil will it resurface earlier than expected.
Not the end of oil as a resource but the end of economically sustainable oil by corporations ....
At what price of the liter of petrol will the company begin to decline ....

There is no reason for the end of the oil to end the car. All the builders work in this direction.

I do not speak at any time of the end of the automobile

But "the end of economically sustainable oil by corporations"

Indeed, no matter the end of oil as a physical resource.

What matters is the price of a liter of fuel ...

How much will you reduce drastically your movements 2 €, 3 €, 4 €, 5 € the l?

From how much will the company "stop" to shoot? 7 €, 10 € the liter?

[Christophe]

With 2 month lag, the Point is roughly the same reasoning as above: http://www.lepoint.fr/automobile/securi ... 17_657.php

80 km / h on roads: the economic ball

To go from 90 to 80 km / h the 1er July would, to hear the authorities, a minor impact on the lives of French. To have.
By Jacques Chevalier

The calculations seem learned. To pass from 90 to 80 km / h would, according to Road Safety, have only secondary consequences: "It will take 45 seconds more for a journey of 10 kilometers and 2 minutes for 25 kilometers. But this will save drivers 120 euros per year of fuel, "she says, pointing out that, according to estimates by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (Ademe)," this slowdown can reduce pollutant emissions by 30% ". For 10 km / h less, it's a miracle. With 20 km / h even less, at 60 km / h, we would probably ride, according to this reasoning, without fuel.

This is the kind of nonsense willingly conveyed by the services of the Prime Minister who seek to end up justifying a measure disapproved by three quarters of the French. Let's see what it is. A first experience simple: take your watch and see what represent, for short distances, 45 additional seconds and then two minutes. It's already considerable!

But when we take professionals of the wheel that spend their days on the roads, the balance sheet turns to disaster. Either they will have to spend, to perform the same tasks, 12% more time. On an eight-hour day, that represents ... 58 minutes! Either their employer decreases their return and increases the amount of their billing with their customers. Not very credible.

One million kilometers hit
To clarify things more scientifically, we must remember the work of Jean Poulit, former director general of the National Geographic Institute, former head of the department of operations and road safety and initiator of the operation Bison Smart. We can not say that he does not know his subject. However, reported by the League of drivers, he assessed the economic impact of a reduction in speed limits on motorways (from 130 to 120 or 110 km / h), roads (90 to 80 km / h) and in town (from 50 to 30 km / h on 80% of the area of ​​the urban areas while maintaining 50 km / h the speed on the least central part).

Jean Poulit believes that such a reduction in speed could result in "a reduction of the gross domestic product of 1,94%, or 39,55 billion euros per year". However, the transition to 80 km / h decided the 9 January 2018 and promulgated the 17 June in the Official Journal concerns the secondary network certainly, but a network structuring regions that officially represents 400 000 kilometers of roads. In fact, it's a lot more, as Auto Plus and TomTom have shown, as we've been talking about here, million kilometers.

It suffices to remove the entire network of motorways and four-lane roads to obtain this figure, certainly with small roads, vicinal, but which are also concerned by the principle of 80 km / h. We are therefore measuring the consequences of Édouard Philippe's initiative, which should have taken into account the work of Jean Poulit. And here is his demonstration, echoed by Pierre-Olivier Cavey, director of studies and campaigns of the League of defense of drivers.

Scope of displacement
"Contrary to an intuitive idea, reducing road and highway speeds does not statistically lead to increased travel times, but to reducing the average distance traveled per trip, the so-called range of travel. This results in a loss of economic efficiency. [...] Reducing the average speed of 12,5% reduces the accessible territory by 23,44%, with a constant travel time. This means that the labor market accessible in one hour decreases by 23,5%, that the shops and the equipment conveniently accessible also fall in number of 23,5%. "

In this way, lowering the speed to 80 km / h is a reversal in the history of transport, that is to say, all the efforts that have been made to "bring closer" the territories by the reduced transport time. A notion already feared by the regions that are standing up against the 80 km / h. This will indeed jeopardize businesses and businesses, whose catchment area will shrink in line with this "range of displacement", withering away.

All those who go to work with already very long journeys are preparing, after the pretense of a lightening of the traffic due to the summer season, to a Kafkaesque 2018 return. And more time spent on the roads, it is more exposure to the risk of accident, a concept neglected again by the Prime Minister.

Miracle consumption?
Finally, the alleged decrease in consumption of 30% and therefore pollutant emissions is not what specialists expect. The Auto Plus laboratory has delivered to Montlhéry to measurements compared with a Renault Kadjar dci 130. On the same circuit test, with a vehicle not subject to the vagaries of traffic, it has passed a consumption of 5,4 l to 4,9 l, ie 10% of economy, and not 30%. So far from government optimism. And the 120 euros saved per year mentioned by the government will be provided on 20 000 kilometers in the year, which is well above the national average of 12 800 kilometers.

Worse, unless equipped with an automatic transmission that will do all the work, the owners of mechanical gearbox will have to use a lower gear ratio to maintain a reasonable response time for safety acceleration. And therefore consume more.

Thus, the negative effects of the 80 km / h, easily verifiable, far outweigh the pseudo-assets that are lent to him and are disputed everywhere. The modernity of a company is evaluated in terms of performance and among these, there is the speed of execution. Slowing down the pace of traffic is also slowing down the country's economic exchanges.

[Christophe]

And another critical article: https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/ce ... 185310.php

CIRCLE / MOOD - It would be more prudent for President Macron to give up the limitation of speed to 80 km / h on the secondary network.

It's stupid to react less than 10 days before applying the measure ...

Or all this is part of the "big plan" ...

[Leo Maximus]

The limitation to 80 km / h concerns only a part of the secondary roads since the roads to 3 lanes will remain limited to 90 km / h, where there are 2 lanes. This is the only path that will be limited to 80. So, in the overtaking areas at 90 we can continue to double the trucks to 120 ~ 130 as everyone does.