In terms of oil and gas, Africa is an under-exploited space which, more than ever, has a role to play on the world stage. All international and national players are eyeing the deposits still to be discovered.
As the world debates the impending peak of oil - when production, after a period of stagnation, begins to decline - Africa is seeing its reserves increase and its global share growing. The continent today holds nearly 10% of the world's proven oil reserves (127,7 billion barrels), compared to less than 8% ten years ago. According to experts, this figure could quickly reach 12%. The facts are there: 20% of the increase in reserves in the world comes from the continent.
“There are massive opportunities in Africa! This is the key to our growth, ”says Osman Shahenshah, executive director of Afren, a pan-African producer listed in London. The discovery off Ghana of the Jubilee field, which went into production in mid-December, was indicative of the continent's untapped potential. The Italian ENI has in fact embarked on a series of acquisitions, notably in Togolese waters. For him, there is no doubt: there will be other Jubilees.
Always drilling deeper
Same story with Total. For Jacques Marraud des Grottes, exploration and production director for the Africa zone, "the continent remains an important exploration zone because [Total has not] discovered everything". The French group invested 5 billion dollars (approximately 3,8 billion euros) in 2010 and plans at least as much in 2011. Mauritania, Libya, Ivory Coast (where Total entered in November)… So many new country for the oil company, which is also continuing its efforts in “traditional areas” such as Angola (or the Pazfloor project, at 220 barrels per day (b / d), will go into production in the last quarter of 000), the Nigeria and Congo.
The continent benefits from at least two converging elements. First of all, the technology, which makes it possible to drill further (beyond 1 m of water depth) but also to recover oil from fields already in use. This is the case of the Anguille field in Gabon, operated for forty years by Total and in which the firm has decided to reinvest 500 billion euros to extract an additional 1,4 million barrels. The other signal is the price, which in 100 hovered around 2010 dollars a barrel and should reach 72 dollars on average in 85. African production, today 2011 million bpd, is expected to reach 10 million bpd in 14 and 2015 million by 20, estimates Duncan Clarke, international expert.
If West Africa, and in particular the Gulf of Guinea, today concentrates the major part of oil investments (in ten years, they have multiplied by ten in the region, to reach 15,6 billion dollars this year), no area will be spared by drilling rigs: East Africa, particularly Tanzania and Mozambique, where the American Anadarko has already announced a gas discovery and where ENI will soon begin drilling work; the Great Lakes region, with proven reserves of 2 billion barrels under Lake Albert, Uganda; North Africa, where projects are multiplying, especially in Libya and Tunisia ... More than 250 billion dollars have been invested over the past ten years, and the trend is expected to increase.
Gazprom bets on Lagos
Natural gas is the continent's other future, especially north of the Sahara. But Angola and Nigeria (70% of sub-Saharan reserves), through the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are also called upon to strengthen their role on the world market. Lagos, already the continent's third largest gas producer (24,9 billion m3 produced in 2009), holds the first African proven reserves (5 billion m250) ahead of Algeria.
The world's leading gas exporter, the Russian Gazprom, was not mistaken, who decided to invest $ 2,5 billion in a joint venture with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. Still in the race to secure its investments in hydrocarbons, China is also investing in gas. The country's leading refiner, Sinopec, bought shares in a gas field from the American Chevron in Angola in late November for $ 680 million.
World dependence on African hydrocarbons is not about to decline. Last year, Nigeria surpassed Saudi Arabia by becoming the third largest supplier of oil to the United States. Washington forecasts 25% dependence on African oil in 2015. China is the main customer for Angola, the continent's third producer of black gold. Finally, Europe intends to take advantage of the various gas projects on the continent (Medgaz, Trans-Saharan, etc.) to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
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