Christophe wrote:Yes but no because what interests people is the weather ... very local from home.
In other words: what will he do with TIME at ME in 30 or 50 years?
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Yes but no but YES! Wanting to cause weather (weather) at times greater than 10-15 days is simply fanciful.
I'm just saying that we're in the dark about predicting long-term climate in terms of local impacts!
Yes, local weather impacts are unpredictable: it's meteorology, not climatology.
We saw it well with the December cold wave: we had a lot more snow than usual and polar winds for 2 or 3 years in winter, as I had never felt!
This is due to warming (modified polar albedo = polar winds over Europe).
That is ONE of the possible explanations, I have heard others very convincing (exceptional phase period between the Nina and the oscillation of the polar front for example ...).
It's climate BA BA but I had never heard of it! So question: what climate model developed in recent years predicted this? Because it's not a 50-year scale but a 5-year scale, it's "just not the same" as Janco would say. So climate or weather?
Weather! Because, precisely, climate models do not "work" on deadlines as short as 5 years!
In short, nobody knows anything precisely: but it's very difficult to admit it!
Any good climatologist will easily concede that he is unable to predict whether the summer of 2027 will be scorching or not, he is talking about CLIMATE, therefore statistics and data averaged over long periods (10 years and many more).
So when a climate expert (who holds his position a priori) still dares to say publicly: the climate naturally fluctuates, human responsibility is not (yet) established, he simply lies ...
Don't see the report, who are you talking about? Because it seems to me that the majority of climatologists agree ...
Intellectual honesty requires prudence, and at best neutrality, is it so hard to say "we don't know" in French?
No, and as said above, regarding the
weather forecasts, beyond 10-15 days, no one claims to know it.
ps: I have always been astonished by the strong TV audience of the weather and the widespread devastation about the climate ...
Because precisely the weather is very concrete now and the climate is statistics in the distant future (on the scale of Mr. Everyone).
"God laughs at those who deplore the effects of which they cherish the causes" BOSSUET
"We see what we believes"Dennis MEADOWS