The latest figures and weather consequences of global warming

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
Earthquake
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by Earthquake » 01/11/16, 08:11

If there is one thing that I like when I watch the videos of this Machiavellian manipulator that Courtillot - some of whom like it, oh, with a lot of doubts, to infest the climatic threads of this forum by qualifying his opinion as "relevant", "interesting", and find that his "scientific" arguments show that everyone has it all wrong - that is to discover his manipulations! Here is one (among many others):

Obamot wrote:...
According to the "moderate" opponents of the uptrend and who do not refute it, Vincent Courtillot, professor of geophysics has shed some light here >>> that is relevant and which tends to demonstrate that there is no expected cataclysm. While stressing that human activity has an impact. Its opinion is interesting in that it refutes the dominant thesis with arguments themselves too scientific. And it also shows some flexibility that we thought impossible (finally will see ...)
...


In the video linked above is offered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXeRbbM2AjY, at 15:17 pm, Courtillot says: "... we took the minimum, maximum and average temperature of each station [44 European weather stations] every day of the year throughout the twentieth century. Here you see the average of these stations is Europe's climate change ... "and the graph appears (15:29). And the great speaker goes on to general surprise, its curve does not correspond to those of the IPCC, and "there is no climate change in Europe from 1900 to 1985" (15:36) and blah blah.

Have you discovered the first tip? Yes, there, between 15: 17 and 15: 36?

The graph shows the curve of the "temperature minimal daily average "for Europe (not that of the average or that of the temperature maximale, they were probably less well suited to the "demonstration") and Courtillot affirms that it is "the average of these stations, is climate change in Europe [...] there is no climate change in Europe to 1900 1985".

Well done, he did not lie for "average", not specify that it was "minimal", and he quickly and well concludes with two crude false statements that all the audience will record, but not dispute in the immediate future. ! The image is good, the sound is good, the video is recorded, the "message" will come through and be broadcast! What mastery of the media!

Courtillot still confuses his audience a little more, and in passing gives a lesson to physicists (16:33) on the units of physics and the average temperature. What class to dare to address an almost true, but stupid remark in the context of the study of global warming, to scientists with such aplomb (and emotion: "this uncertainty that torments me myself"; 16:54; what an honest man).

Then he goes on the curve of the "temperature minimum average "of the United States which appears at 17:12 (hey, this one is not" daily ", but" moving average over 3 years ", and it is still" minimum "or" minimum "; me j I forgot my statistics lessons a bit, but he, an illustrious member of the Academy of Sciences, knows very well what soap he is giving us).

[Aside: Before proceeding, note that the minimum temperature of a day (including Courtillot the great geophysicist, just show us the average curves) usually occurs (except when a warm front arrives before or after a cold front arrives the sunrise) in the morning just before sunrise, so at a particular time of day. Indeed, a region of the Earth (Europe or the US, for example) will not pick up infrared radiation (heat) when the sun is above the horizon but at the end of the night, it's been hours that this area has not received, making it a very special moment. Without being an expert, I doubt that the curve of the average daily minimum temperature is not the same as that of the average daily temperature, and also differs from the average daily maximum temperature curve, the average daily temperature at sunset sun, etc.

I lost you? Him too!

I would like to compare the minimum, medium and maximum temperature curves of the study Courtillot to verify this intuition, but I bet if I asked him, he did not give me ... End of aside ]

And, in addition to the intermediate neck effects discovered above, Courtillod compares (at 17:33) his curves of "Average daily minimum temperature"with those of the IPCC which are curves of"anomalies in global temperature 1906-2005 (continental-year averages)"(their title appears at 14:39, when presented alone).

Read the paragraph above again. Yes, there are big differences between 1900-1985 "mean daily minimum temperature" curves and 1906-2005 "global temperature anomalies (decadal continental averages)" curves, you read that right!

But at 17: 33, when comparing the titles no longer appear, it's more visual and convenient.

This is the second tip! Courtillod compares apples with bananas, sauerkraut garnished (by him) with Niçoise salad, something that could have been compared with the incomparable. From this improbable comparison he allows himself to conclude that the IPCC curves are "wrong" (17:48), oh, "this curve is not very wrong" (he is magnanimous, is he? And we move on to the singular, in the anger, normal for such an emotional being), "she has a very undervalued uncertainty", etc.

Bravo, well packaged, great master of manipulation which I'll never ankle (in this area).

A moment to talk nonsense (2 31 minutes seconds, but it was prepared) hours to prove that it is false (yes, I was well taken 2 hours)!

I hope you appreciate the effort.
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by eclectron » 01/11/16, 10:22

Terremoto wrote:If there is one thing that I love when I watch videos of this Machiavellian manipulator what Courtillot - which some people like, oh, with a lot of doubts, to infest the climatic threads of this forum by qualifying his opinion as "relevant", "interesting", and find that his "scientific" arguments show that everyone has it all wrong - that is to discover his manipulations! Here is one (among many others):

Obamot wrote:...
According to the "moderate" opponents of the uptrend and who do not refute it, Vincent Courtillot,

...
This is the second trick! Courtillod compares apples with bananas, sauerkraut garnished (by himself) with nicoise salad, something that could have been comparable with the incomparable. From this improbable comparison he allows himself to conclude that the IPCC curves are "wrong" (17:48), oh, "this curve is not very wrong" (he is magnanimous, is he? And we move on to the singular, in the anger, normal for such an emotional being), "she has a very undervalued uncertainty", etc.

Bravo, well packaged, great master of manipulation which I'll never ankle (in this area).

A moment to talk nonsense (2 31 minutes seconds, but it was prepared) hours to prove that it is false (yes, I was well taken 2 hours)!

I hope you appreciate the effort.

Terremoto all my excuses, I thought you were OBAMOT perverse manipulator under a different nickname.
Since you Obamot attacks in person, I now have the proof that it can not be you!
Really, I'm confused. *
* Of course ironic

Courtillod, Whether intentional or not, you betrayed a new faith Obamot:
Unintentional: your subconscious difficult to tame ... dirty beast!
Intentional, to show that there is no qu'Obamot who commits this error.
Who can this interest well, apart Obamot?


Merits: Coutillot certainly compare the curves of the IPCC (T ° average) with minimum curves?
Is it correct ?
Absolutely, even more correct than average poorly made since taking the minimum temperature, it is nature that makes the actual average alone.
You have probably never built a weather station of your hands and observed how varied the temperature in the day, minute by minute.
I do.
From the time the sun sets and when it rises, the air temperature only dropping linearly, a beautiful right!
The slope of this line is a function of all the solar energy stored the previous day and cloud cover (or not) the night sky.
The temperature drops the infrared radiation to space by night more or less according to the local greenhouse on that day.

The temperature minium, just before sunrise reflected a by integrating the mathematical sense the temperature of the previous day and the other losses into space during the night and local greenhouse day said.
This is a very good indicator of the average temperature of the previous day.
What matters is the pace only this curve that accounts for climate change daily.
Sometimes the minimum temperature is not in the morning at sunrise, following a north wind or East who stood up in the day but those days are rare.
End of tone aside.

It does not bother me at all that you're still on the forum and that you have changed your opinion about the climate, as long as you bring constructive and sincere argumentation.

What bothers me is that you are not honest you are only there to play and manipulate, given the tone of your message.
I regret that some still let themselves be taken in your nets.
Especially izentrop that you like with all his now, you have to laugh, is not it?

With that life can return to normal activities, I do not know you again.
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whatever.
We will try the 3 posts per day max
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by izentrop » 01/11/16, 10:58

eclectron wrote:I regret that some still let themselves be taken in your nets.
Especially izentrop that you like with all his now, you have to laugh, is not it?
It is you who persist in thinking that suits you and lacks true reflection.

You act as if you are on "seekersduvrai", but deep down, on this forum, I wonder where the difference is for some stakeholders (be careful, I do not make a generality and I do not target anyone).
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by Earthquake » 01/11/16, 19:43

eclectron wrote:
...
Merits: certainly Coutillot comparing curves IPCC (T ° average) with minimum curves?
Is it correct ?

No, this is absolutely not correct:
Terremoto wrote:Courtillod compare (at 17:33) its curves of "temperature minimum daily average"with those of the IPCC which are curves of"anomalies global temperature 1906-2005 (continental-year averages)"

A curve mean temperature (Apple) is not a curve mean anomalies temperature (banana).
I have nothing against comparing apples and bananas (after all, they are both fruits, seed carriers), but then we point it out, we explain how and why, and if we then notice that apples and bananas do not really look the same, it surely cannot be concluded that bananas are "wrong" and "badly made" and that apples are real and well made.

eclectron wrote:...
You have probably never built a weather station of your hands and observed how varied the temperature in the day, minute by minute.
I do.
From the time the sun sets and when it rises, the air temperature only dropping linearly, a beautiful right!
The slope of this line is a function of all the solar energy stored the previous day and cloud cover (or not) the night sky.
The temperature drops the infrared radiation to space by night more or less according to the local greenhouse on that day.

The temperature minium, just before sunrise reflected a by integrating the mathematical sense the temperature of the previous day and the other losses into space during the night and local greenhouse day said.
This is a very good indicator of the average temperature of the previous day.
What matters is the pace only this curve that accounts for climate change daily.
Sometimes the minimum temperature is not in the morning at sunrise, following a north wind or East who stood up in the day but those days are rare.
...

Ah, finally a contribution of arguments that can be used in the debate, and further supported by a personal technical experience! They better explain some things I have summarized in confirming others, but the author still draws an erroneous conclusion to invalidate my point and confirm that Courtillot-Dupont: "This is a very good indicator of average temperature of the previous day. "

With the rest (except the alleged linearity night temperature curve, to demonstrate, but it is not for me to do), I quite agree!

Regarding the "very good indicator", here is the chart of a month (August 2016, not chosen at random, but rather selected to support what I want to show. It's human, but others [Dupon ( t) (d)] do this without warning their listeners) of minimum, average and maximum temperatures, a graph taken at random from my research to find one:
Aout2016.jpg

It comes from the weather station Plannebec (Finistère) http://www.meteo-plabennec.fr/statistiques-comparatifs-40.php (This site allows you to select the graph of a particular month, very useful! Try!)

In this chart, if one follows the daily minimum curve (virtually plotted by the peaks of blue columns), we see no reflection peaks of the daily maximum curve (virtually plotted by the peaks pink columns) of 15 and the 16 23 August or August or the average for the same dates. Given the correlation of all other dates, one can draw the curve minimum is at best a rough reflection of those averages and maximums, but never a "very good indicator" ...

Then, in the same vein, it is enough to Courtillot-Dupont select "55, 44 not weather stations" (15: 09 in the video Courtillot-Dupont) from hundreds and hundreds of European meteorological stations (http://www.infoclimat.fr/cartes/observations-meteo/temps-reel/temperature-sous-abri/europe.html) With a goal in mind to "prove" his point. I just used a similar strategy, so it is perfectly possible, even human when we want to prove what we want to prove ... But this is not very scientific.

With that life can return to normal activities, I do not know you again.

I repeat myself, but if only that were true, lasting ...
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Earthquake
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by Earthquake » 01/11/16, 21:20

eclectron wrote:...
Especially izentrop that you like with a vengeance ...
...


Ah yes, Izentrop, must not be forgotten, it is almost the only speaker (to my knowledge of neoeconologist) who systematically opposed with constant courage to the formidable climatosceptic couple Obamot-Eclectron in the thread "Analyzes on warming anthropogenic climate ".

Do not draw abusive conclusions about the Obamot-Eclectron similarity but, thank you Izentrop, I must go "like" you a little more.

To be continued...
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by moinsdewatt » 02/11/16, 18:34

The ice reduces and thins

The 02.11.2016 Sciences et Avenir

The oldest ice melts thirty years, leaving it vulnerable to global warming ice cap.

The area of ​​ice in the Arctic Ocean, at the hottest of summer when the melting is strongest, is now 40% lower than in the late 1970s. Since the early 1980s, the sea ice has been shrinking at a rate of 13,4% per decade and "it's the older ice that is disappearing," said Walt Meier, a glaciologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

..........................

http://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-e ... ond_107886
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by Earthquake » 03/11/16, 22:24

It did not help, but who would have thought?

Warming of the indicators more alarming than ever
...
The planet could beat this year its third consecutive annual record heat since records began in 1880.

For the first nine months of 2016, the temperature is located 0,98 ° C above the average of the twentieth century (which was 13,88 ° C), surpassing 0,12 ° C the previous record for the same period of 2015.

On the whole 2015 year, the average increase in global temperature had reached 1 ° C compared to pre-industrial era, benchmark used in international climate negotiations.

In the Arctic, the temperature at the surface of the land found in 2015 2007 and 2011 records levels, with an increase of 2,8 ° C from the early twentieth century, when the first survey.

The concentrations of the three main greenhouse gas (GHG) - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide - have reached new heights in 2015.

For the first time, the concentration of C02, the main greenhouse gas, exceeded throughout the year 400 the ppm (parts per million) across the globe. This trend will continue.

To have the best chance of limiting the temperature increase to 2 ° C, and so try to contain the most serious consequences of global warming, the average concentration of greenhouse gases must not exceed in 2100 the 450 ppm CO2eq (equivalent CO2 in parts per million).

Around the world, the retreat of glaciers in the alpine massifs continued in 2015, for 36e straight year.

Greenland lost almost 2.700 billion tons of ice between 2003 and 2013.

The smallest extent of Arctic sea ice in summer has reached 4,4 million km2 the 16 September, just behind the record of 2012 (3,39 million km2). The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030.

The sea level continued to rise in 2015, with some 70 millimeters more than the average in 1993.

The level rises gradually around the Earth about 3,3 millimeters per year. The increase was faster in some parts of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

This phenomenon is likely to accelerate in the coming decades as glaciers and ice caps will melt, threatening the lives of millions of people on the coasts.

If emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise at current rates, the decline in Antarctic ice cap alone could raise the seas one meter by 2100, almost doubling previous estimates.

Some climate scientists, the number of extreme weather events linked to global warming (droughts, forest fires, floods, hurricanes) has doubled since 1990.

The climate change will further increase the violence of typhoons on China, Taiwan, Japan and the two Koreas, according to a recent study, according to which "in recent years 37, typhoons that hit the east and southeast Asia won in 12 15% intensity. "

8688 on species threatened or near-threatened, 19% (1688) are particularly affected by global warming, because of the temperatures and extreme events it causes.

The great Barrier Reef has experienced in recent months its worst coral bleaching due to warming.

Warming beyond 1,5 degree, ambitious limit mentioned in the Paris agreement alongside 2 ° C would lead to a disruption of ecosystems of unique Mediterranean in 10.000 years.

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2016/11/03/les-indicateurs-du-rechauffement-plus-alarmants-que-jamais
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by izentrop » 03/11/16, 23:25

Nothing on phytoplankton?
This phytoplankton plays at the same time a major role in the climate balance of the planet representing only 0,5% of the mass of plants on the planet, it captures alone 45% of the carbon sequestered by photosynthesis. https://proxima.cnes.fr/fr/1-loeil-du-s ... atlantique
What we know of today?

There's weird stuff anyway http://www.israelscienceinfo.com/enviro ... ro-algues/
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by The shadow » 04/11/16, 02:31

I read with delight your words but it's been years since the alert was given I remember in 1992 or on forums (few) it was not yet fashionable : Oops: you have no idea of ​​the damage since that date 1992> 2016 = 25 years of technology for the daily life of rich countries 8) I'm outside
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Re: The latest figures from global warming




by Earthquake » 04/11/16, 13:08

Shadow wrote:I read with delight your words but it's been years since the alert was given I remember in 1992 or on forums (few) it was not yet fashionable : Oops: you have no idea of ​​the damage since that date 1992> 2016 = 25 years of technology for the daily life of rich countries 8) I'm outside


Having had parents environmentalists before the hour, in 1960 years, with organic garden and homeopathic treatments, it's almost 50 years I look at the debacle happen, but few people paid attention.

And as another said on another thread, it is only when the urgency is obvious that people move. The urgency unfortunately being there, it's time to point the finger at those who do not want to see again!

Let's Get, must change!

I'm out too, but it is COLD! (-5 Degrees)
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