Christophe wrote:
Uh if the rainfall modeling dates from 1959 ... how did Météo France make the maps of 1910?
Christophe wrote:Yes Didi, they start talking about precipitation and it's not too early !!
A bit everywhere as I just posted it:Christophe wrote:Ahhhhhhh finally an article that talks about précipitations: https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/socie ... 80351.html
The daily MEDOR rain-flow conceptual model was developed for the Mediterranean environment. The sensitivity analysis of the hydrological processes to the characteristics of the environment and the climate gives it a specific conception. This four-parameter model has been
based on data from six Mediterranean, French and Lebanese basins. Its calibration using the Nash criterion poses equi-finality problems. The exhaustive scanning of the criterion space shows the existence of relations between production parameters on the one hand and
transfer ones on the other hand. A criterion with variable maturity determines the equidinality of production relationship, based on annual rainfall and flow totals and the daily stochastic structure of rainfall.
Coupled with a dimensionless stochastic model of rainfall, MEDOR generates a representative surface of the basin flow coefficients in the parameter space. Five zones have been defined around the Mediterranean with their reference areas.
MEDOR has spatial and temporal agglomeration properties. The model parameters for a basin formed by the union of several sub-basins are determined by agglomeration laws using the parameters of each one. One of the parameters of the function of
production is related to the useful depth of the soil, which makes it possible to transform the global model into a semi-distributed model. The extension to a larger number of basins would make it possible to specify the meaning of the parameters, and therefore to envisage an application to basins
ungauged.
Climate: Floods will multiply in Europe
The Vif 29 / 01 / 18 to 18: 08 - Updated to 18: 08 Source: Afp
Floods such as those experienced in France in recent days are likely to multiply in Europe because of global warming, even if it was limited to 1,5 ° C, according to a study published Monday.
The authors of this study published by the journal Climate have reviewed 3 scenarios, ranging from + 1,5 ° C to + 3 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era.
In the most optimistic scenario, the damage caused by water overflows in Europe will more than double, to about 15 billion euros a year, according to the researchers. And the number of people affected by the floods would increase by 86%, or about 650.000 people per year. But in case of rising temperatures of 3 ° C, the damage would increase from 145% to about 17 billion euros per year, and 780.000 people would be affected (+ 123%).
The Paris Agreement on the climate, signed in 2015, aims to contain the increase of the temperature below the critical threshold of 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, even 1,5 ° C. The signatory states are committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. But on the basis of these national commitments, the planet is always moving towards + 3 ° C. Already, an increase of 1 ° C has been enough to cause the shrinking of the pack ice, the increase of the average level of the oceans, or even more precipitation. The warmer air contains more moisture, then released as rain or snow.
Floods, the impacts of which are aggravated by urbanization, are already one of the most costly natural disasters in Europe. Accurate projections of the pace of climate change are crucial in terms of risk prevention. "This work confirms that the impacts of climate change on the risk of flooding in Europe are extensive and significant," commented the authors of the study, with which the Joint Research Center of the European Commission was associated. "Our results show that large impacts can be avoided by limiting global warming to the lowest temperature threshold. Nevertheless, a considerable increase in the risk of flooding is predicted in Europe even under the most optimistic scenario of +1,5 , XNUMX ° C ", they added.
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