global dimming and warming

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
denis
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by denis » 24/01/08, 10:57

No need for a tag, it's done remotely! lazer technology must be there for something.
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by Leo Maximus » 24/01/08, 11:22

Christophe wrote:
Leo Maximus wrote:The problem is not the average temperature (we are only told about this, in this documentary as in others), the problem is the temperature peaks. A temperature spike of a few hours beyond 40 ° C causes havoc in agriculture and we are absolutely not protected against it.

+ 1 talk of average T ° is complete and quite deceptive pipo because:
a) some regions are warming much faster than the average T ° (+ 2 ° C in the Arctic)
(b) some regions will, on the contrary and on average, cool down. Example: more cloud cover due to increased evaporation of the oceans ...
Then, I always wondered how the "average" temperature was calculated of the planet before satellites because 70% of the globe = ocean and I doubt that tags have been installed every X km to crisscross the oceans ... : Mrgreen:

In addition the average means do not mean anything, they are false yet we use them. Example HS: In school notebooks, the average of a student is averaged using the average in each subject and the result is false.

The 2008 year is in a minimum of solar activity and the cold is more intense in some cold regions at the moment.
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by Christophe » 24/01/08, 11:29

denis wrote:No need for a tag, it's done remotely! lazer technology must be there for something.


Oh yeah ? And in 1880, 1900, 1920, 1950 ... etc etc? I clearly specified "before the satellites" ...

In short, I am convinced that when we talk about global average T ° of the globe before the modern global satellite measurement method we compare 2 magnitudes by comparable ... because not measured equal ...

In short, pipo from pipo ... The reality can therefore be "worse" as "better" ...

The local measures, as for it remains fair ... and are much "worse" in places besides ...
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by gegyx » 24/01/08, 11:53

Leo Maximus wrote: In addition the average means do not mean anything, they are false yet we use them. Example HS: in school notebooks the average of a pupil is averaged using the average in each subject and the result is false.
I do not really know what you mean.
The average of averages .... will always be an average, necessarily fair, since it depends on the figures that have been considered.

If that sounds wrong with the coefficient, that's another problem.
If this seems false to you, because we do not take into account the differences, nothing prevents to specify it ...

Giving an average allows a person who does not interfere much in the numbers, to still make an idea.
Or for political communications, to give the figure that shocks the least.
It is not fair to say that an average is wrong, only because it does not indicate larger possible deviations.

For the average of the global temperatures, the problem is perhaps the homogeneous coverage of all the points of the globe which is not made?
Previously there were weather stations or individuals who religiously recorded temperatures in some parts of the world. They could do their average over the year.
But averaging these averages, is not fair, realistic, because they are disparate geographically on the surface of the globe (with large holes on the sea surfaces).
In the latter case, I join you.
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by Leo Maximus » 24/01/08, 12:24

gegyx wrote:
Leo Maximus wrote: In addition the average means do not mean anything, they are false yet we use them. Example HS: in school notebooks the average of a pupil is averaged using the average in each subject and the result is false.
I do not really know what you mean.
The average of averages .... will always be an average, necessarily fair, since it depends on the figures that have been considered.
If that sounds wrong with the coefficient, that's another problem.
If this seems false to you, because we do not take into account the differences, nothing prevents to specify it ...

Giving an average allows a person who does not interfere much in the numbers, to still make an idea.
Or for political communications, to give the figure that shocks the least.
It is not fair to say that an average is wrong, only because it does not indicate larger possible deviations.

For the average of the global temperatures, the problem is perhaps the homogeneous coverage of all the points of the globe which is not made?
Previously there were weather stations or individuals who religiously recorded temperatures in some parts of the world. They could do their average over the year.
But averaging these averages, is not fair, realistic, because they are disparate geographically on the surface of the globe (with large holes on the sea surfaces).
In the latter case, I join you.

Regarding the school marks, the real average would consist in adding all the marks and then dividing the total obtained by the number of marks, but this is not what we do, we take an average of averages and the result is often significantly different. We can see it very well on a simulation with Excel, depending on the method of calculating the "average" a student can have more than 10 of "average" or less than 10 of "average", he passes or he does not pass. Most people ignore this fact, even among teachers!

The problem is not the average temperature, the problem is the peaks of high temperatures that are a formidable threat to agriculture and, apart from air conditioning retirement homes, we do NOTHING.

The philosopher Jean-Pierre Dupuy: A major ecological disaster is looming, we know it, and yet we fail to transform this knowledge into belief. It's a bit like our individual death; we know we're going to die; it is even the only thing of which we are absolutely certain; and yet it is impossible for us to form a representation of it. Until disaster strikes, we don't take it for granted. An English psychologist has shown that the propensity of a community to recognize the reality of a risk is determined by the idea it has of the existence of solutions. As the powers, economic and political, which govern us, believe that a radical change of our lifestyles and a renunciation of "progress" would be the price to pay to avoid the disaster, and that it seems to them impracticable, the occultation evil inevitably follows.
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by gegyx » 24/01/08, 12:41

Yes, we agree that extremes can be fatal, and must be taken into consideration, on a scientific report of disclosure.

As for the HS
We can see it very well on a simulation with Excel, depending on the method of calculating the "average" a student can have more than 10 of "average" or less than 10 of "average", he passes or he does not pass. Most people ignore this fact, even among teachers.
I am also incredulous.

Is it just a question of rounding? (as different from 0,01 for accounts in €)

Is not it rather, because in a controlled subject, there have been absentees (thus, fewer notes taken into account).
Some optional subjects have a reduced staff, (therefore fewer grades)
In sport, there are some exemptions, in the year.
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by Christophe » 24/01/08, 12:51

gegyx wrote:I am also incredulous.
Is it just a question of rounding? (as different from 0,01 for accounts in €)
Is not it rather, because in a controlled subject, there have been absentees (thus, fewer notes taken into account).



It's not at all a question of rounding, it's a mathematical question, if you do not have the same number of our it's not the same thing.

Nothing beats an example:

a) same number of notes:

1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 3 average
11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15 = 13 average

Average Average = 8
Actual average = 8

b) different number of notes:

1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 3 average
13 = 13 average

Average Average = 8
Actual average = 4.7

By putting coeifficient (style barycentre) we would correct this fact ... but do not ask too much to the teachers :D

And Leo, it's been a long time since the average is no longer the criterion to redouble or not ...
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by Leo Maximus » 24/01/08, 13:12

Christophe wrote:By putting coeifficient (style barycentre) we would correct this fact ... but do not ask too much to the teachers :D

And Leo, it's been a long time since the average is no longer the criterion to redouble or not ...

If, yes, it still plays when the teachers are fed up with debating with the parents, they take out the averages ...
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by denis » 24/01/08, 17:35

Christophe wrote:
denis wrote:No need for a tag, it's done remotely! lazer technology must be there for something.


Oh yeah ? And in 1880, 1900, 1920, 1950 ... etc etc? I clearly specified "before the satellites" ...

In short, I am convinced that when we talk about global average T ° of the globe before the modern global satellite measurement method we compare 2 magnitudes by comparable ... because not measured equal ...

In short, pipo from pipo ... The reality can therefore be "worse" as "better" ...

The local measures, as for it remains fair ... and are much "worse" in places besides ...


Oops, sorry, it's true that historically it's more like it!

in 1700 (finally at 1 century near : Cheesy: he had a drought with a big famine with the dead that goes with it! it's cycles ...
the problem is that the average over the year is not alone to take into account, the extreme differences are harmful! the warming is also global !, previously a secheressse (very old) was localized, but not global, as is the case today! (Well, that's what my neighbor says, I was not there! : Cheesy: )
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by Former Oceano » 24/01/08, 22:07

Christophe, it's not complicated !!!

The average for the climate is:
You put your head in the oven, your feet in a tray filled with ice water and ice cubes ...

And on average, you're good!

Except that at the ends, you've got really bad!

Well, for a lot of people the averages are reassuring ...
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