Analyses on anthropogenic global warming

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
Janic
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Janic » 22/11/16, 19:38

Rather compare the theories of climate science to theories of health sciences, there are obtained certainty and doubt rate roughly comparable to those of climate science, handled one side by opposing interest industries, on the other by supporters of all kinds of theories and "therapies" more or less based on empiricism, Etc. But we can retain doubts about the reactions of the body, a system that is not yet understood in all its complexity.

All so-called scientific therapies were first empirical (observation object) before being considered theories. Newton's apple is one of them!
The other aspect is the conservatism that has trouble to question especially for those who believe they have some knowledge about these various topics; conservatism is the most powerful deterrent against any research and innovation.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Earthquake » 22/11/16, 20:46

Janic wrote:All so-called scientific therapies were first empirical (observation object) before being considered theories. Newton's apple is one of them!

You refer to therapies, while theories may be more suitable about you, no? I admit my ignorance in this area, but to my poor knowledge, no therapy (or apple) has never changed in theory, unless you mean the therapy of a falling apple can treat conservatism of Newton believed that possess knowledge and suggest a new universal theory.
The other aspect is the conservatism that has trouble to question especially for those who believe they have some knowledge about these various topics; conservatism is the most powerful deterrent against any research and innovation.

In terms of conservatism, I can assure you that visibly around me, the earth is flat, and I need to take a step back or to cross many observations to invalidate this assumption .. . I will not be that difficult able to invalidate that with my limited means of observation, unless I was doing around the world, or if I appellais at the same time all my relationships around the world to ask them s' they see the sun or not.

Or I study the observations of others, I cross-check them, and I make my own idea of ​​the question, not without remaining potentially a victim of the "conservatism" of a person who believes he has some knowledge ...

In many consider the flood of information that I have not seen myself empirically, I think I'm going to say yet in agreement with the consensus (less 1% of followers of the flat earth) that the earth is spherical.

With regard to the global climate, a new science, the "conservatism which has difficulty in questioning itself especially among those who believe they have some knowledge" can therefore only be the fact of those who have not followed the recent developments in this science.

In terms of conservatism, I can assure you that at first glance, around me, things have warmed up a bit (to my great displeasure), but then I confuse local weather and global climate, between personal affects and universal considerations. So we start again: I study the observations of others, I cross-check them, and I make my own idea of ​​the question, not without remaining potentially victim of the "conservatism" of a person who believes he has some knowledge ...

Bottom line, the global climate warms, and the cause of the current warming is anthropogenic.

It's a bit like no demonstration, even out any philosophy, right?
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Evaluation » 22/11/16, 23:01

Terremoto wrote:
Evaluation wrote:Individual action ultimately has little weight, even if the result of the individual action is not zero.
This is the sum of non-zero action happens to do a little something.
One can only remain humble about his own power to make things happen.
Or act in a non-zero way in order to set an example and bring others to also act for the same good reasons, which can change our actions from "non-zero" to a significant fundamental movement.

Identifying yourself with a noble cause, "saving the planet", makes you feel less insignificant, it can justify an analysis bias on the climate issue.
Buying the latest model of an object of much covetousness can also make it possible to "feel less insignificant" and "to justify an analysis bias on question X", for example, the damage caused by thoughtless overconsumption.

I'm not saying that's the case, I do not know but it can.
Again the doubt, an escape route many times used in these threads to say: "I do not care what everyone says, I doubt and it is my right, because it is an attitude validated in science"!

If I have a question in general, is that I know quite well through the human being.
The doubtful component resulting from "human failings" is fairly well removed in science by the research evaluation method (validation by peers without conflict of interest, cross-checking of the results of multiple, cross-disciplinary, interdisciplinary research, etc. .)

There are groups of self-centered people, in agreement on one point (eg climate) and who think altruistic and selfless, as they are much to think and act for the good of all.
This grown up both by the cause to defend and the number.
Mass reassures, peers, all self justification.
I'm not saying 97% of climate scientists are wrong, or have reason, I just am not taking incompetence recognized on Climate subject and observation of human nature.
Logic would however want that, "by incompetence" in one area or another, we trust the mainstream when it is widely founded and accepted, and that we retain doubts when the arguments opposed to this current are strong, well supported by data, even by precautionary principles on fundamental aspects which have not yet received a credible answer. In the case of global warming, the opposition does not present "strong arguments, well supported by data, or even by precautionary principles on fundamental aspects which have not yet received a credible answer". But we can still have doubts about the reactions of nature, a system that we do not yet understand in all its complexity.

possible consensus 100% expected from me?
99.9% suffice.
I quoted Newton, perhaps he should hang unhinged critics but his physical perfectly describes what it applies. There is no doubt, like what the consensus is possible.
In terms of Newtonian physics, we are in the field of fundamental laws that apply successfully in our physical dimension, outside the field of relativity, of the infinitely large and the infinitely small. It therefore has indeed reached a consensus rate almost 100% but no 100%. It would probably be good to not confuse consensus and unanimity ...

Compare rates consensus Newtonian theories that climate theories, more complex (but still subject to Newtonian principles) and never will be new basic laws is false.
Let us rather compare the theories of climatic sciences to theories of the health sciences, there, we obtain rates of certainty and doubt roughly comparable to those of climatic sciences, manipulated on the one hand by industries of opposing interests, of the other by proponents of all kinds of theories and "therapies" more or less based on empiricism, etc. But we can have doubts about the body's reactions, a system that we do not yet understand in all its complexity.

If I'm wary about is the man because climate subject passes through it.
Man is quick to pack on a subject, to take sides, to identify with a cause rather forget his personal contradictions and its insignificance.
The best "therapy", in this case, would be to make personal choices according to criteria that the individual considers valid. It is not a question of tilting to one side or the other of the scales for comfort, but to inform oneself up to his own limit of comprehension, to make choices and to draw the consequences, this which leads everyone to make decisions while remaining on the lookout for reasons to doubt their own choices.

Climate science and especially the recent global warming, are less simple to describe and formalize more the man who is what he is, I'd wait a bit before packing it.
All the alarm bells are from, how long are you going to wait?

If I'm careful about the discourse of global warming, I am equally by following its recommendations to combat it.
I am not taking up the cause and yet I act, I do not have any problem, it is the minimum risk management in a world of uncertainty.
Please do to see a contradiction or a problem only you can handle this.
I am relieved to learn that without taking sides or "doing and doing", you are still acting in the direction of an unsatisfactory 97% consensus.

This is commendable, and this myself pledge to return once again question my drinking habits (already half the habits of my fellow citizens, but still getting excessive to me since they would require several planets be sustainable).

Can we think that by giving half the time for emitting habits CO2 and other pollution would reduce 50% of its share in many problems?

50% off! Makers we have elected do not even dream ... So why expect them to provide quick solutions to problems already obvious?


Personally I have nothing to add on the subject, I read only paraphrase my previous answer.

I stay on the reservation does not exempt him my action, nor the climate future, then why do you need this I absolutely adheres to the mainstream, which may prove to be partly a mistake? or not ?
It does not change anything to the problem, clearly other motives that the subject drive you.

Sincerely yours.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Earthquake » 23/11/16, 01:09

Evaluation wrote:Personally I have nothing to add on the subject, I read only paraphrase my previous answer.

I stay on the reservation does not exempt him my action, nor the climate future, then why do you need this I absolutely adheres to the mainstream, which may prove to be partly a mistake? or not ?
It does not change anything to the problem, clearly other motives that the subject drive you.
Ah well I almost had the same type of question, and as the last exchanges were confined to messages between you and me, I dare allow myself the familiarity, which will avoid giving the impression that others are involved:
No one here has asked you to join the mainstream, but you, why did you feel the need to come to report, to emphasize and defend your right to remain on the reserve compared with a consensus (for which you like a 100% that will never be granted to you however that many of this thread stakeholders accept consensus 97%) while according to what you said you would do your resistance despite the consensus in the same direction as those who defend? By mistake or not.
It would have certainly been more interesting to know how you act in such a context, and why you act while you resist the consensus without further argument that a strong philosophy of human contradictions? Invisibly, other motivations that animate about you ...

It is these that I wish I knew, absolutely no malice on my part.

Yours.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Janic » 23/11/16, 08:10

terremoto hello
Janic wrote: All say scientists therapies were first empirical (observation object) before being considered theories. Newton's apple is one of them!

You refer to therapies, while theories may be more suitable about you, right?

Precisely not! How can one know whether a particular drug (current) will be effective against a particular disease? By trial and error, by empiricism based on the observation results (excluding placebos or nocebos effects) Then, and only then, stands the theory that such Medoc can be effectively used against a particular pathology (excluding individual side effects, collectives, synergistic with other, etc ...)
I admit my ignorance in this area, but to my poor knowledge, no therapy (or apple) has never changed in theory,
It's just a matter of choice in the formulations. Thus the theory of evolution is considered a fact, almost a proof (in 97%?) By removing other parameters "disturbing" to the proponents of this theory, precisely.
This is what makes the parallel between the "therapies" and global warming, where the number of members in the majority view may be wrong for missing or rejection, other parameters (I do not say it is if, through ignorance, too, but I'm so used to hear the ins majority views crushing the other. (situation conversely fall into the same rut that matter). Whatever moreover that this warming is anthropogenic or not, what matters is the awareness of the negative impact that our technological society has on our environment and the survival of the living world that follows
In terms of conservatism, I can assure you that visibly around me, the earth is flatAnd I need to take a step back or to cross many observations to invalidate this assumption ...

It's been a little warmed dish! The "theory" of the flat earth (invented by whom and for what reasons?) Never held up against the observation (and not the appearance of observation) and the idea of ​​a round earth is very old. After the cultures have feasted, maybe, but it's like any culture, just a major influence it turns into dogma and can continue. Do not they say even now that the sun "rises" and "sets"?
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Evaluation » 23/11/16, 09:40

I see that you do not read my answers, nor yours, what seems more serious.
Everything is said but not to let you in emptiness, I restates you:

Terremoto wrote: No one here has asked you to join the mainstream.

If, here: climate-change-co2 / analysis-on-warming-climate-anthropogenic-t7605-360.html # p312600
Terremoto wrote: All the alarm bells are from, how long are you going to wait?

****************
Terremoto wrote: you want a 100% that you will never acquired while many stakeholders agree to this thread consensus 97%

Deformation sense my words. I do not absolutely demands 100% which is of course impossible.
I claim more than 97%, close to 100%, the climate is modeled and predictable irrefutably a small margin of error close.
We are far from my requirements, so I stay on the reserve on the science side, although they are probably right wholesale.
****************
Terremoto wrote: It would have certainly been more interesting to know how you act in such a context

Already answered here: climate-change-co2 / analysis-on-warming-climate-anthropogenic-t7605-360.html # p312594
I do not take up the cause and yet I act, I do not have any problem, it is the minimum risk management in a world of uncertainty.

****************
Excuse me, I have more serious things to do than to continue this type of exchange.
Sincerely yours.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Earthquake » 24/11/16, 05:32

Evaluation wrote:I see that you do not read my answers, nor yours, what seems more serious.
Everything is said but not to let you in emptiness, I restates you:

Terremoto wrote: No one here has asked you to join the mainstream.

If, here: climate-change-co2 / analysis-on-warming-climate-anthropogenic-t7605-360.html # p312600
Terremoto wrote:All the alarm bells are from, how long are you going to wait?
Oh (the message of your link, I wrote, nothing you ordered at all), it was a philosophical answer to your impersonal philosophy, and the issue was a question, not an injunction to join you in a consensus that you do not want. Because what is amazing in your stopping point is that:
Evaluation wrote:
Terremoto wrote: you want a 100% that you will never acquired while many stakeholders agree to this thread consensus 97%

Deformation sense my words. I do not absolutely demands 100% which is of course impossible.
I claim more than 97%, close to 100%, the climate is modeled and predictable irrefutably a small margin of error close.
We are far from my requirements, so I stay on the reserve on the science side, although they are probably right wholesale.
Yes, it is true that you cited the figure that would satisfy you, 99,9% consensus, which would leave 0,1% uncertainty, a bit like Newton's law of universal gravity ... 2-3% uncertainty, that is 20 to 30% more uncertainty than the 0,1% that you can tolerate, that seems enormous. You do well to be careful ... 20-30% is fat, 2-3% is skinny, others might consider that "a small margin of error", but not you, because that as said elsewhere, we are free to choose.
Evaluation wrote:
Terremoto wrote: It would have certainly been more interesting to know how you act in such a context

Already answered here: climate-change-co2 / analysis-on-warming-climate-anthropogenic-t7605-360.html # p312594
In the message of this link, I see your figure 99,9%, but not how you act despite your disappointment.
Excuse me, I have more serious things to do than to continue this type of exchange.

Go back to your more serious occupations serene heart, very expensive. For me too, it can not stop there.
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by izentrop » 05/12/16, 00:44

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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by Christophe » 05/12/16, 02:58

If ever the information was not passed above: http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015- ... the-world/

Sorry but it's "us" (the assholes) responsible for the warming ... 95% sure ... according to NASA ...

Nasa_effet_serre.gif
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Re: Analysis of anthropogenic global warming




by izentrop » 12/05/17, 15:02

Climate, vaccines, GMOs ... the French accept science when they like it http://theconversation.com/climat-vacci ... lait-75785
The French are often quick to point the finger at Americans about their tumultuous relationship with science, especially with respect to climate change and species evolution. And for good reason, they are hardly more than half to attribute climate change to human activities and only a third to consider that living things have evolved through natural selection.
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