Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
Christophe
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by Christophe » 06/03/09, 19:20

Yes ... on the other hand I have a little doubt about the figure of 1 nuclear reactors (I am only talking about the "useful" power by taking 000GW per reactor therefore) that I am putting forward (the report does not mention it). not).

I will try to find an estimate of the power ...
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by Christophe » 06/03/09, 20:47

This link confirms the figure of 1 nuclear reactors: http://www.clubdesargonautes.org/faq/odgfaq.htm

The flow of the "Gulf Stream"

It is around 90 Sv * in front of Cape Hatteras (* The Sv or Sverdrup is the flow unit used by oceanographers. One Sv is equal to 1 million m3 of water per second).

The mass of ocean water that evaporates into the atmosphere is 10Sv. The precipitation rate is 9Sv. The flow of all rivers near 1Sv is estimated. If water was continuously poured into the ocean with a flow of 1 Sv, its level would rise by 10 cm per year.


The thermal energy of the Gulf Stream.

The thermal transfer from the tropics to the arctic region due to the Gulf stream is estimated to be 1.1015 W or 1 PetaW.

World energy consumption is around 10 GigaJoule per second. It is the energy equivalent to that which would be produced during one second of continuous operation of a set of 000 10GW power plants (or 000 Tera W). This represents almost 1% of the thermal power of the Gulf Stream. It is also 10 times the total power dissipated in the world ocean by the tides which would be around 1 TW
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by Christophe » 06/03/09, 21:06

Here is the object of my doubt:

a) It is admitted that the Earth receives 40 times, in the form of solar radiation, the energy necessary for humanity

b) There are 500 reactors in the world which cover about 5% of the needs of humanity

c) It would therefore take 500/5% = 10 nuclear reactors to cover 000% of the needs of humanity (it sticks with the information in the link)

d) The earth therefore receives the equivalent of 40 * 000 = 10 equivalent nuclear reactors

e) The gulf stream alone therefore represents 1/400 of all the solar power received by the Earth. It is coherent: to verify if the "surface of the gulf stream" represents such an order of magnitude ...
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by Christophe » 21/12/10, 17:08

The original video is no longer available, here it is on another site: http://www.wat.tv/video/europe-sans-gul ... heu9_.html

See also Langlois' analysis of the European winter 2010/11 and its possible links with the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico: https://www.econologie.com/forums/gulf-strea ... 10281.html
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by Christophe » 09/06/18, 19:45

This is confirmed: https://www.politis.fr/articles/2018/04 ... ope-38690/


Climate: the Gulf Stream is letting go of Europe

All the Atlantic currents are weakening under the effect of climate change.

Climatologists have been announcing and dreading it for years: under the influence of climate change, most of the currents, small or large, which cross the immense Atlantic Ocean while maintaining a balance which benefits most European climates, north- Americans and Africans are changing. This is revealed by the two studies published on April 11 in the English journal Nature.

According to scientists, the currents which cross the Atlantic have never been so weak and so random since the beginning of the XNUMXth century. This phenomenon is added to the melting of the pack ice which pours millions of tons of fresh water into the sea. This not only has an influence on the Atlantic but, moreover, calls into question the circulation of water between the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere.

Due to the increasingly violent confrontation between bodies of water whose temperature and salinity are increasingly different, some of the warm waters reach the depths of the sea and return to the south. This disrupts the planetary circulation of water by causing what specialists call "the meridian circulation of the Atlantic reversal". Hence the increasingly noticeable changes and wanderings of an enormous water circuit which participates in the regulation or maintenance of climates.

Threats to Europe
It is for these reasons, according to the authors of the two studies, that the famous Gulf Stream which allows Western Europe to enjoy a temperate climate is weakening. The cause: this current is no longer sufficiently cooled and its salt density decreases. The anomalies had been noted for years but, explains the professor at the Polish Institute in Potsdam, Stefan Rahmstorf, who conducted one of the studies, "we now have certainties". He adds :

We have analyzed all the available sea surface temperature data sets, including data from the late XNUMXth century to the present day. The model we found in the measurements looks exactly like what is predicted by computer simulations, namely a slowdown in the Gulf Stream.

A bad new
Scientists in the second study, conducted by David Thornalley's group from the University of London College, say that over the past fifty years, the Gulf Stream and other currents as important for planetary balance have changed "from certainly during the twentieth century, with a notable decline from 1950 "and that" this evolution is most certainly linked to human factors ". David Thornalley, head of evaluation for the English team, estimates that the change in currents, particularly in the Gulf Stream, "represents a decrease of 3 million cubic meters of water per second, the equivalent of one fifteen rivers like the Amazon. And I think that is very bad news ”.

The conclusions of the studies are indeed worrying, since if the cause of the weakening of sea currents, starting with the Gulf Stream, is linked to climate change, it will also have other serious climatic consequences.
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by izentrop » 10/06/18, 06:57

The commenters on this page don't really like each other very much. They only think about bickering :frown:

More details here on what to expect:
In no case will the Gulf stream stop: in any case, not for the moment. But it is clearly demonstrated that it slows down and weakens. Assuming that global warming is the cause, this state of affairs could continue for an indefinite period. In the end, the cooling of the waters of the North Atlantic would continue, risking cooling the climate of Western Europe.

However, it should not be assumed that France and its neighbors would suffer the rigors of Canadian winters. Even if the comparison is sometimes made, there will always be differences due to the geographic location of these two continents. The prevailing winds being oriented west in our hemisphere, Quebec is under the influence of continental arctic air masses, particularly icy. Western Europe is influenced by the winds which have flown over the Atlantic Ocean: even if it cools, the air masses will still remain milder than those which concern Quebec. On the other hand, what the simulations suggest is that the cooling of the North Atlantic would be favorable for the formation of anticyclones at high latitudes (Iceland, Scandinavia ...), which cause the winds to pivot to the north-east is characteristic of cold waves.

Cooling of the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea would therefore be conducive to more frequent descents of arctic air: cold waves would be more numerous and snowfall abundant, which allows a relative comparison with the climate that knows Quebec and the northeast of the USA. On the other hand, the summers would be cooler and wetter in Western Europe, while they would remain hot and stormy across the Atlantic. http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actu ... -27816.php
What is confirmed?
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by Christophe » 06/08/21, 13:12

The report on this topic is here:



For more precise studies, read: climate-change-co2 / gulf-stream-and-cold-wave-in-europe-measurements-and-studies-t10281.html
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by izentrop » 07/08/21, 03:06

A previous study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, had shown at the end of February 2021 that the circulation of the Gulf Stream was at its lowest point for 1 years. This current has been declining since the middle of the 000th century, more particularly since 2005. According to the team of researchers, the cause is clear: global warming.

Until now, scientists still did not understand what this slowdown meant. And the findings of the team led by Niklas Boers are not good: "The results support the hypothesis that the decline in AMOC is not just a fluctuation or a linear response to increasing temperatures, but means rather than approaching a critical threshold after which the water circulation system can collapse ". In other words, the end of this climate regulation system, in the system we know in any case.

One of the causes behind this slowdown is the melting ice in the Arctic. This melting adds fresh water to the oceans. Fresh water being lighter than salt water, it will have less tendency to descend and therefore to join the cold currents which circulate the water towards the tropics. Surprised by these results, Niklas Boers calls for an "urgent" review of the models to gauge more precisely where this tipping point is located. https://www.franceinter.fr/sciences/des ... entifiques
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by ABC2019 » 07/08/21, 05:16

ah well the models are not developed?

they are hiding everything from us ... how can we believe in regional forecasts 100 years from now with incorrect models? : Twisted:
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Re: Gulf Stream, the Achilles heel of the climate




by izentrop » 07/08/21, 08:20

These are just words, for the most part let the instruments speak ... in 2018
Scientists know that the Amoc has slowed since 2004, when instruments were deployed at sea to measure it. But now two new studies have provided comprehensive ocean-based evidence that the weakening has been unprecedented for at least 1 years, which goes back as far as the new research expands.

"Amoc is a very important part of the Earth's climate system and it has played an important role in abrupt climate change in the past," said Dr David Thornalley of University College London, who led one of the new studies. He said current climate models do not reproduce the observed slowdown, suggesting that Amoc is less stable than previously thought. https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... arch-finds
Today we have a lot of reasons to worry
"The signs of destabilization already visible are something I would not have expected and find frightening," said Niklas Boers, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who conducted the research. “It's something that you just can't [allow] to happen. "

It is not known what level of CO2 would trigger an AMOC collapse, he said. “So the only thing to do is to keep emissions as low as possible. The likelihood of this extremely high impact event occurring increases with every gram of CO2 we put into the atmosphere ”.

Scientists are increasingly concerned about tipping points - significant, rapid and irreversible climate change. Boers and colleagues reported in May that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the brink of collapse, threatening a sharp rise in sea level globally. Others have recently shown that the Amazon rainforest now emits more CO2 than it absorbs, and that the 2020 Siberian heatwave resulted in worrying releases of methane. https://amp.theguardian.com/environment ... m-collapse
I have a silly question you have the secret to, just for you:
Why would all these scientists do catastrophism? like that, just for the sake of getting the adrenaline pumping?
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