Gulf Stream and cold snap in Europe: measurements and studies!

[FPLM]

I like these threads where we go from one extreme to the other without any foundation based on a significant time scale But heating or cooling does not matter: the price of a barrel will not stop increasing (peak oil or not) and renewable energies will nevertheless become competitive.

All this is completely the fault of BP, what a bunch of jerks! It's them I'm sure!

No, we are not going from rooster to donkey, we are talking about the same thing because BP has indeed given a fatal blow to the gulf stream already suffering from global warming (drop in speed of 30%).
(from there to say that this winter is the direct consequence, it is going a little quickly in work but far from being stupid)

The proof :

The route is well known to specialists. The warm surface current enters the Gulf of Mexico between Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula, forms a loop there before returning to the Atlantic by the Strait of Florida (see infographic). It is the Loop Current, a precursor of the Gulf Stream, which can progress up to 5 km / h.

However, this loop current licks one end of the oil spill caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform on April 22, some 80 km from the coast of Louisiana. Last Sunday, after the successful start of pumping crude oil by BP, the pollution spread over a radius of 320 km around the defective well.

The extension of crude oil to Loop Current is evidenced by satellite images collected by the European Space Agency ESA. These are analyzed in Brest by a team from Ifremer and Boost Technologies, a company specializing in the observation of the marine environment.

In depth too

Research engineer at Boost Technologies, Fabrice Collard follows the phenomenon. “The bulk of the water table is located around the leak. But a strip of oil 3 kilometers wide by a hundred kilometers long continues to stretch and is sucked by the Loop Current. The oil trapped there goes to the Strait of Florida as if it were being carried by a river, ”he explains.

This analysis concerns the surface of the oil slick. Satellites are unable to pierce it. But the Loop Current having its effects several hundred meters deep, one might think that the oil that stagnates in the water column is also carried away. Its route will take it near the archipelago of the Keys, at the end of Florida, then in the strait where it will cross the Bahamas before following due north the East coast of the United States and branching west, Greenland and Europe. “The Gulf Stream is like a powerful river up to North Carolina. It then forms meanders and is no longer as channeled ”, summarizes Fabrice Collard.

A serious simulation but a simulation, I insist:

An Italian physicist, Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, from the prestigious Research Division of the National Institute of Nuclear Physics at the National Frascati Laboratories (LNF) of the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN) in Italy, arrived with some surprising scientific results. Dr. Zangari specializes in research and analysis on the global climate. He found that the huge amount of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, from the BP disaster, caused a break in the "Loop" current in the Gulf. And, moreover, that this resulted in a dramatic weakening in the velocity of the Gulf Stream and the current of the North Atlantic, and a reduction in the temperatures of the waters of the North Atlantic by 10C.

This is a university-level physics experiment that uses a cold water tank and injects a jet of colored hot water into it. You can see the limits of the layers of the hot water jet. If you add petroleum to the tank, it breaks down the limits of the layers of the jet of hot water and effectively destroys the velocity of the current. This is what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic Ocean. The entire "hot water river" that stretches from the Caribbean to the edges of Western Europe is dying because of the Corexit that the Obama Administration allowed BP to use to hide the scale of BP's Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. The roughly two million gallons of Corexit, along with several million gallons of other dispersants, caused most of the two hundred million gallons of crude oil, which had spurted for months from the head of the BP well and other neighboring sites, especially sink at the bottom of the ocean. This has helped conceal much of the oil, with the hope that BP could seriously reduce federal fines for the oil disaster. However, there is currently no effective way to "clean up" the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, about half of which is covered with crude oil. In addition, the oil has flowed along the East Coast of America and into the North Atlantic, and there is no way to effectively cleanse this oil from the "seabed".

This enormous amount of crude oil covering such a huge area has seriously affected the current systems of the Loop Current, the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic, breaking the boundaries of the layers of the jet of hot water.

So I agree with you Obamot, they are bastards, rubbish because they chose to minimize the media and legal impact of the disaster risking the lives of millions of people!
In fact fascist or genocidal would be more appropriate.

[Christophe]

Source of the 2 citations please?

It is the same Zangari as that quoted in the intro message of this subject: https://www.econologie.com/forums/gulf-strea ... 10281.html

Seriously I think BP was not really aware ... if I dare say ... they had other things to think about at the time ... anyway the damage was done.

[Obamot]

wi, wi +1, and there was irony in my words, but basically everyone here is very upset with them! The way they managed it purely from an economic point of view to ultimately manage to cement the well anyway, okay it's very facho, especially if they had done it from the start, it could have have an impact probably divided by 1000 ...

As for asserting in% the impact that it would have actually taken place, I'm not there, because quite simply I know absolutely nothing about it personally except the volume ratio of water available in comparison in the Atlantic : which makes this catastrophe a fart of a fly larva ... The problem is not, moreover, in the proportionality report, but especially in the shameful principle of je-ne-foutisme which prevailed and which makes this completely unacceptable and infamous type of pollution!

[FPLM]

Source of the 2 citations please?

It is the same Zangari as that quoted in the intro message of this subject: https://www.econologie.com/forums/gulf-strea ... 10281.html

Seriously I think BP was not really aware ... if I dare say ... they had other things to think about at the time ... anyway the damage was done.

Of course, the first:
http://www.sudouest.fr/2010/06/13/maree-noire-le-grand-voyage-marin-du-goudron-louisianais-115711-4585.php
The second :
http://christroi.over-blog.com/article-maree-noire-et-affaiblissement-du-gulf-stream-vers-une-nouvelle-ere-glaciere-en-europe-de-l-ouest-57735974.html
It is the same Zangari.
BP was responsible for studying the immediate environment of the drilling and that likely to be affected by an incident.
That's the lesser of it. Otherwise, it is the door open to amateurism.
Then, they had only 2 things to think about: to contain the leak and, if not, to contain the tablecloth so that it does not disperse. With much amateurism and ill will, the leak was finally stopped. On the other hand, the tablecloth was deliberately dispersed, it is a serious fault, very serious.
The other considerations are futile in the face of the consequences.
Do you think that I would be allowed to obtain a license to operate a nuclear site only because I can afford it?
They were obviously aware, we do not give an offshore license to amateurs.
Has manure yes but it's something else ...
They also have the obligation to carry out all kinds of expert appraisals according to specifications set by the license. Oceanographic studies are part of it. They can't say they didn't know ... Unless they're liars and they are.

PS: sorry Obamot but I still have a little trouble with your cynicism.

[Obamot]

Bah! It is not serious.

And small clarification: It is BP's fault if they were forced to cement their well. I had made a small estimate in the appropriate thread and I said that it would not hold up given the pressure ... And that everything was going to fart. And as should be expected, it blew up!

Result of the races, they did not manage to recover their well (but this made it appear that only the profits counted ...) they are at the origin of the worst oil spill of all time .... and they still had to cement!

I said that you had to make anchors using cables with at the end insufflation of pockets of cement in the ground, and there it would have held! It was enough for them to back up cement to plug, as they did at the end. It was the FIRST thing to do after anchoring amha.
Thus they could have fixed their cap by relying on the anchor, AND NOT BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DRIVE ALREADY DAMAGED BY THE EXPLOSION OF THE PLATFORM! Fatal error!

[FPLM]

Colder winters because it's hotter, study finds

By Marlowe HOOD (AFP) - Dec. 21 2010

PARIS - The fact may seem strange and yet, according to scientists, the harsh winters that have followed one another in Europe for ten years are linked, in large part, to global warming.

At first glance, the icy coldness that has hit Europe seems ill compatible with the average rise in temperatures expected by the end of the century, which could reach from 5 to 6 degrees.

To climate-skeptics who see evidence that climate change does not exist, some scientists say that these cold spells are a temporary cooling in global warming.

But, a new study goes further, and shows that the rise of the thermometer is precisely at the origin of these snowy and particularly cold winters.

The culprit would be the melting of the Arctic ice cap. The warming, two to three times above average, has resulted in its reduction of 20% these last 30 years. It could even disappear entirely during the summer months by the end of the century.

The sun's rays, which are no longer pushed back by the ice, warm the surface of the globe a little more at this point.

A sea without ice, and it is the entire system of pressures that is upset.

"Let's put the ocean at zero degrees," Stefan Rahmstorf, climate specialist at the prestigious Potsdam Institute (Germany) for research on climate impact, told AFP on Tuesday.

"It is thus much warmer than the ambient air in this polar zone in winter. You then have a significant warm flow going up towards the atmosphere, which you do not have when everything is covered with ice. It is a huge change, ”he adds.

The result, according to a study published at the beginning of the month by the Journal of Geophysical Research, is a system of high pressures which pushes the polar air, anticlockwise, towards Europe.

"These anomalies could triple the probability of having extreme winters in Europe and northern Asia," said physicist Vladimir Petoukhov, who led the study.

Other explanations for these atypical winters, such as a drop in solar activity or changes in the Gulf Stream, "tend to exaggerate the effects," adds Mr. Petoukhov.

He also pointed out that during the icy winter of 2005-2006, when temperatures were 10 ° lower than normal in Siberia, no anomaly was noted in the North Atlantic oscillation, a meteorological phenomenon advanced by some as a possible explanation for these harsh winters.

Researchers point out that these particularly cold winters in Europe do not reflect the overall trend across the globe, where 2010 is expected to be one of the three hottest years on record.

"When I look out my window, I see 30 cm of snow and the thermometer says -14 °", says Mr Rahmstorf, who was speaking on the phone from Potsdam.

“At the same time, in Greenland, we are above zero in December”.

source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hTeSkdVZrvQH-zlyiqpoT9MVUHgQ

[dedeleco]

the freezing coldness that fell

is very relative, and questionable, because the old people remember much worse in 1956, (Seine like the ice floe with big snowdrifts that I never saw again) and the uktra-old in their graves, of horrible winters with famines , late 1600 with the Thames frozen to the bottom and the Seine too !!!

And many other distant winters !!

[Remundo]

I don't have the impression that this autumn was cold ...

And winter has still not arrived.

So much the better for heating!

[FPLM]

Yes, you're right dedeleco, of course already, the climate fluctuates and sometimes reaches peaks. But this oscillation remains predictive (as far as our understanding of the climate is concerned). Current observations no longer match what we know about the climate.
Finding a mild fall does not mean that winter will be mild. The problem is rather in the scale and the differences between the different seasonal climates. For example, we have known 3 consecutive winters that can be described as cold since 2008. This is already a scenario which is exceptional enough for it to come out of classic models. A 4th winter of the same type (cold and dry) is unlikely according to these models. This winter will be crucial for future forecasts.
Again, our understanding of the complex terrestrial climate system does not allow us to worry or enjoy a hot or cool summer, or even a mild or harsh winter. What is worrying is to note that we are moving away from known models no longer periodically and exceptionally (as underlined by dedeleco) but significantly and recurrently.
We do not already understand the whole natural climatic machine which is sometimes surprising, but it is certain that we add to this an influence which we can only estimate that it will have serious consequences. From there to say which ones, these forecasts there are hypotheses.
Spring and fall rainfall broke records this year. Some say that the winter rainfall will be comparable to the summer (still according to classic models) but a large part of the water that comes to us from the Atlantic is brought by the gulf stream. This observation is already very worrying.
I do not know if we can say so much the better for heating because an autumn without wind and without rain is perhaps due to an accumulation / retention of water somewhere in the circuit which is likely to unbalance the system and bring about a balancing strong and sudden climate change, therefore violent. This is to be compared to the physical potential of an elastic band or a capacitor, the larger the potential difference between minimum and maximum, the more violent the balancing towards the average.
Doesn't the saying say calm before the storm?

[Christophe]

I don't have the impression that this autumn was cold ...

And winter has still not arrived.

So much the better for heating!

a) This is news from December ... 2010 ...

b) Yes, autumn, in the north at least, is rather (very) mild: probably, like spring, far beyond the "normals" of the season (in spring, March April May, we had +3 to 4 ° VS).

Yesterday, November 20, it was over 10 ° C in the Ardennes ... today also great sun and probably the same. It's good to morale !