The return of real estate, finally the prices drop!

[bamboo]

Can I bring my little theory on announcements concerning real estate?
They depend on the interests of those who make them:
- A few years ago, a newspaper known for small real estate advertisements announced that there would inevitably be a very sharp decline in the years to come
- At the same time, a group of real estate agencies said the opposite: no fear to have

How are these 2 players paid:
- The first is remunerated according to stocks: the less there are transactions, the more there are dwellings for sale, and the more it earns classified ads. This is why he announces a real estate cataclysm: if people panic, there will be more sellers, and fewer buyers.
- The 2nd is paid on the flows: the more there are transactions, the more there are commissions. This is why he announces that all is well: the buyers are confident and sign with their notaries.

In other words, we should not trust what we are told: we must rather analyze his degree of personal stability (from a professional, family point of view, etc.)

Personally, I changed accommodation 3 times (every 4-5 years) and I do not complain: each of them allowed me to put money aside to buy the next one. Even if they had gone down, I would still have put the rents aside (even if it would have been less efficient, necessarily).

[Christophe]

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... _3234.html

Real estate profits jumped 60% between 1999 and 2009 while French GDP grew in constant currency by 14% and the total mass of profits by 17%, indicates a study revealed Wednesday December 21 by the daily L'Humanité.

According to this survey carried out by Pierre Concialdi, economist at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IRES), at the request of Droit au Logement (DAL) and the Copernic Foundation, "64,7 billion euros in monetary profits have generated in France in 2010 by the rental of housing, premises for professional use or by intermediation activities in the real estate market ".

Compared to the average of other income, real estate has therefore achieved "33 billion surplus profits", which represent "the cost of real estate speculation and the release of rents borne by households", book the economist.

A FRENCH MAN IN TEN HAS REAL ESTATE FOR RENT

Slightly more than half (55%) of French people own real estate and 11% of them own commercial real estate (intended for rental), two thirds of which are in the hands of the wealthiest 10% , indicates the study carried out starting from the national accounts of INSEE.

On the professional side, the largest property administration group in France, Foncia, has tripled its turnover since 2000 (575 million euros in 2010). "The management of its 252 rental properties remains the most profitable activity of the group and represents 000% of its operating income. With fees calculated as a percentage of rents which are revised upwards each year, the management market rental provides certain resources, estimated between 45% and 3% per year, according to some experts, ”says the study.

[Christophe]

The prices of old housing in Paris broke a new record in the fourth quarter of 2011, at 8 euros per square meter on average, an annual increase of 390%, according to a study by the Chamber of Notaries of Paris / Ile- de-France and INSEE published on Thursday 14,7 February.

The year 2012 should mark a sharp turnaround, they forecast. For the whole of Ile-de-France, the price of old housing, houses included, should decline between 5% and 10%, said the notaries of the region during a press conference. But this break "with the long bull cycle (...) will only be sustainable if new construction accelerates sustainably in Ile-de-France for several years", they warned.

For the whole of France, the increase in prices for old housing over the whole of 2011 was 4,3%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. The increase reached 6,7% for apartment prices and 2,6% for house prices. In the provinces, prices were almost stable in the fourth quarter, with a slight decrease of 0,1%. The number of transactions in the whole of France is estimated at 828 over the twelve months from October 000 to September 2010, up 2011% compared to the previous twelve months.

http://www.lemonde.fr/immobilier/articl ... 06281.html

[Christophe]

This time it is on ... they will really lower the prices!

http://www.immobilier-danger.com/Prix-d ... s-514.html

Notaries have just communicated their latest statistics on property prices in France. Find the evolution of the prices of apartments and houses in 2011. The notaries of Province also approach the perspectives for 2012. They also expect a drop in volumes and a fall in prices in 2012 and even in 2013 ...

Figures 6 months behind schedule ...

As in every press release, the figures published by the notaries are six months behind what is currently happening.

They communicate, in fact, on the real estate prices of the final sales made in the 4th quarter of 2011, that is to say the sales agreements signed in the 3rd quarter of 2011 (between July and September 2011).

It is therefore difficult to draw lessons from it and to know whether prices have actually dropped since the start of 2012. If all forecasters have bet on a fall in prices in 2012, we will have no official information on the selling price at the start of 2012 until next fall ...

Here is, however, what should be remembered from this note on the real estate situation of notaries in France.
The number of real estate sales in 2011 breaks records

There have never been as many homes sold as in 2011. Notaries recorded 858 real estate transactions in 200. This is 2011% more than in 9.

Several factors contributed to this record:

- The availability of a zero-rate loan for all first-time buyers, both old and new, and without means test, has attracted large numbers of buyers (restricted to the purchase of new housing in 2012).

- The change in taxation on capital gains generated many sales at the end of 2011. Many second homes and rental properties were sold before the increase in capital gains taxes.

- Even if they rose slightly throughout the year, mortgage rates remained very low throughout the year. Low rates plus the PTZ + allowed the French to buy housing, despite their prohibitive prices.

All the changes for real estate in 2012 will have the opposite effect on the volume of transactions ... This is what we were referring to at the end of 2011 to explain the risks of a strong market downturn in 2012.

Notaries confirm that they expect significant sales declines for both new and old real estate. We will see in more detail their forecasts for 2012 after taking stock of prices in 2011.

(...)

In .pdf: https://www.econologie.info/share/partag ... KcKkJT.pdf

[Christophe]

Fall? Will not fall?

French real estate is about to plunge

Published 10 / 04 / 2012

In terms of international comparison, the French housing bubble now far exceeds that which took place in the United States, as well as the English bubble. The French market is today one of the most overvalued in the world.

http://www.contrepoints.org/2012/04/10/ ... de-plonger

[sen-no-sen]

The French market is today one of the most overvalued in the world.

It is a pleasure to hear!
The French real estate market is simply dreamlike!
As for the decline, must see, last year in Lyon real estate took 11% !!!
This year it is still increasing, so it all depends on the cities.
In general, prices stabilize at the national level, but we shouldn't be happy about that, buying in a big city these days is quite simply to be plucked!

What is good is that the entire political class (from one extreme to the other) offers the same solution: more social housing ... or how to clean a wound by defecating on it!

[Christophe]

What is good is that the entire political class (from one extreme to the other) offers the same solution: more social housing ... or how to clean a wound by defecating on it!

Not understood the end ...

[sen-no-sen]

What is good is that the entire political class (from one extreme to the other) offers the same solution: more social housing ... or how to clean a wound by defecating on it!

Not understood the end ...

Let me explain: real estate prices having exploded a large number of French people had to go into heavy debt (to the greatest happiness of the banks) to become an owner ... at the risk of seeing a "sub prime" crisis made in France.

For the most modest, the only solution is social housing.
The problem is that social housing has to be paid for and it costs a lot ... and it is a vector of delinquency, withdrawal from the community, etc ... but hush the right to say it!

Except in a context of crisis, if there is more social housing (therefore more public expenditure to finance it) it is that there are more poor people, and if there are more poor people who have taken more to be able to build social housing and well that amounts to digging one's grave!

[Christophe]

Real estate prices could drop 40% in 10 years

After supporting the hypothesis of a real estate bubble in France, whose “climax” was reached last year, PrimeView delivers its forecasts of a price drop between 30 and 40% in 5 to 10 years .

(LaVieImmo.com) - Is this the end of the “French exception”, which has kept property prices at a high level in France, contrary to the general movement observed in Europe? This is what privilege strategists Pierre Sabatier and Jean-Luc Buchalet from PrimeView, in the last part of a three-part study devoted to real estate, on the site primeview.fr. They predict no more and no less that the fall in prices should be "between -30% and -40% over the next 5 to 10 years".

"A strong, lasting and widespread correction"

PrimeView now believes that the market is on the slope of "a strong, lasting and widespread correction". And this, after the disappearance of a certain number of levers having supported "a very large valuation bubble, having undoubtedly reached its climax during the summer of 2011". This is observed on the credit front, with the gradual decrease in personal contribution, the increase in rates as well as the decrease in the duration of the loan. Just like more generally "the progressive disappearance of the unconditional support of the sector by the State". In his latest study to date, the expert also noted the close link between the good performance of real estate and a "buoyant demographic profile"; profile which is no longer today with the aging of the population and, consequently, with the relative decrease in assets and therefore of potential buyers.

"Disbelief and denial" facing the bubble

A fervent defender of the theory of a "gigantic bubble in France", Primeview had judged that since 1998 the soaring prices of 161% on the French market could not be explained nor by "the general inflation of goods and services", nor by "the increase in household disposable income". If the theory is far from bringing together economists and observers, they are "today at the beginning of its deflation (...) proof of a mixture of disbelief and denial in the face of the bearish movement that is taking shape", tackle Primeview.

More or less shared forecasts

Either way, and if the topic divides, the bearish outlook is mixed to say the least. For its part, Standard & Poor's estimated in a study that prices could fall back by 15% by the end of 2013. A scenario reaffirmed by the rating agency in a study published Tuesday, specifying that the production of credit could drop by 30% by the end of the year alone.

In the shortest term, and concerning the only Parisian market, Ile-de-France Notaries announced yesterday a forecast of decrease of 3,4% in a few months, between the 8 euros per average square meter reached in November and the 380 8 euros which should be noted in June. A movement that is already there, since they announced for the months of November and February alone a contraction of 100%.

Find property prices per m², city by city
Leo Monégier

http://www.lavieimmo.com/prix-immobilie ... 14620.html

[razputin]

The concern is that regularly we see here and there that the real estate market prices are falling, or stagnating. But whether we look at the sale, purchase or even rental announcements, I don't really have the impression that it is decreasing from year to year ...