The war in Iran soon?

[georges100]

you say like me a badly managed end of war leads to another war in the more or less long term ...

for japan i don't quite agree ....
the management of japan in the immediate aftermath of the war was catastrophic ... famine, abuses of all kinds ... the treatment of nuclear victims would be a crime against humanity nowadays ...
but this is a special case, Japan very quickly became the rear base for US troops against China and the Communists

[Remundo]

Hi Chrisophe,

completely agree on the harmful effects of war on the aggressor. However, the loss of a few thousand human lives does not weigh heavily in US logic.

So Georges is right ... Remundo, you underestimate Iran, do you know the Iranian population and its unity?

It’s a developed and united country, it has nothing to do with iraq ... and they are not arabs as many people believe ...

It is the 18th GDP in the world (France 8th): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html

Yes, with 60% of oil exports ... for Iraq 74th, are these the figures for now, after the war? If so, questionable reference. I also consider that a GDP based on an opportunistic rent such as oil, and also poorly redistributed in the country, does not make much sense.

Then you just overlook one detail: Putin's Russia supports Iran ... so much the better it may avoid a second masquerade.

Ah that's true and it's a double-edged sword. Iran's control gives access to the Caspian, a major oil and gas transshipment point ... So either the US says, "no, we're going to get the Russians on edge", or on the contrary they say, what great combination of circumstances to piss them off "...

Anyway if it's Obama who wins I think this "preventive war version 2" is obsolete.

Moué ... not sure, or else they will find a roundabout way, with more finesse (proxy war via "secret" support to Israel ...). I don't really believe in the 180 ° turnaround in US "Modern for the Change" foreign policy.

[Christophe]

Remundo, it doesn't matter if the GDP comes from oil or gas or high tech: It means that they have the dough to have a powerful regular army and to buy modern weapons.

So an Iranian conflict will have NOTHING at all to do with the invasion of Iraq ...which was not a war but a simple battle ...

A page to better understand: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerre_Iran-Irak

[Remundo]

Christophe, I'm going to polish you up a bit

Are they ready militarily? If this is not the case, their money will be of no use to them, except to do as in Iraq, that is to say lead a posteriori a militarily sterile guerilla overallor even go to war between them (with their countless hostile ethnicities / faiths ...)

I read this in your very good Iran data link

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Iran's economy is marked by an inefficient state sector, reliance on the oil sector (which provides 85% of government revenues), and statist policies that create major distortions throughout. Most economic activity is controlled by the state. Private sector activity is typically small-scale workshops, farming, and services. President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD failed to make any notable progress in fulfilling the goals of the nation's latest five-year plan. A combination of price controls and subsidies, particularly on food and energy, continue to weigh down the economy, and administrative controls, widespread corruption, and other rigidities undermine the potential for private-sector-led growth. As a result of these inefficiencies, significant informal market activity flourishes and shortages are common. High oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass nearly $ 70 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Yet this increased revenue has not eased economic hardships, which include double-digit unemployment and inflation. The economy has seen only moderate growth. Iran's educated population, economic inefficiency and insufficient investment - both foreign and domestic - have prompted an increasing number of Iranians to seek employment overseas, resulting in significant "brain drain

Not brilliant ... Except for oil, it almost looks like France

[georges100]

completely agree christophe ....
without the preliminary blockade it would have been less simple ...

in any case, no matter how hard I think, without genocide I can't find an example of a country that has lastingly preserved its conquest ...

[Leo Maximus]

... for the record, the us did not wage war in Korea, it was NATO ... there were even Belgian troops

Sorry but in Korea it was allied troops mandated by the UN, not NATO at all, that makes a (big) difference.

[georges100]

we play on words
come on let's say that the un under pressure from the us has mandated NATO troops

[Christophe]

Military ready? Am not a specialist but they have a regular army (unlike Iraq in 2003) and can buy weapons from the Russians in a few months. This is already the case ... we had talked about it extensively in the (long) discussion: https://www.econologie.com/forums/il-faut-sa ... t1484.html
It is perhaps this idea of ​​the oil exchange in euros which has revived "all this" recently ...

Not brilliant ... Except for oil, it almost looks like France

No, it's better than France: the French people are not (more?) United like the Iranians ...

ps: did you know that the term "Ayrien" comes from Iran?

[Leo Maximus]

Then you just overlook one detail: Putin's Russia backs Iran... so much the better it may avoid a second masquerade.

Toutafé, Putin has declared that he will not accept an invasion of Iran, same for China and these are not negligible military powers.

[Remundo]

That's right Christophe,

In fact, nobody really knows how it can happen there ...

Iran is made up of more than 80 ethnic groups and all do not speak the same language ... It is a theocratic republic (a unique "concept" in the world to avoid saying an Islamic dictatorship with modern parliamentary makeup ...), dictatorship by definition unstable because in the event of a conflict, everyone "wants to redistribute the cards for their own benefit ...

But if the Russians come to support them militarily, the power would be strengthened and that would change everything ...