Consequences of the economic crisis in figures in 2011

[Christophe]

A doc in .pdf which analyzes the (1st!) Effects of the economic crisis that we are experiencing; this now concerns more the real economy and confidence than finance and we are starting (already) to be well in the red ...

Xerfi-Previsis n ° 168 - November 2011

Businesses are on the razor's edge. Just follow the evolution of the balance of opinions of the treasurers of large groups to be convinced. When asked "how do you judge the situation of your company's operating cash flow?" », The difference between the responses indicating easy cash flow and that indicating difficulties became negative in October, at -5,1%. In other words, the situation is considered very delicate by an increasing number of treasurers. The shock is violent and we have to go back to March 2010 to find the trace of a passage in the red zone ...

https://www.econologie.info/share/partag ... rqv1b7.pdf

Found on: http://www.marc-candelier.com/article-e ... 85930.html

[Christophe]

More than 5 million people are registered as unemployed in France ... and it is that the "beginning" ... the figure officially given is only that of category A, ie currently around 3 millions ...

More than 5,2 million registered at Pôle Emploi
Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:34

This is the sad result of a financial, economic, social, moral, democratic crisis - in short: civilizational. Question: what will the UMP do with all these "assisted"? Euthanize them?

Because it is not over.

Some commentators have the nerve to say that "the crisis has really started" when it has already hit millions of French people since autumn 2008: the hard core of the long-term unemployed, which represents more than 40% of those registered with Pôle Emploi (see below), attests to this.

Here is the inventory, based on the last note from Dares / Pôle Emploi.

Category A (official unemployed, without any activity): +34.400
At the end of October, there were 2.814.900 in mainland France, 3.051.700 with the overseas departments.
Annual progress: + 5%

Category B (unemployed in reduced activity less than 78h / month): -2.900
They are 553.400 in mainland France.
Annual growth: + 4,3%.

Category C (unemployed in reduced activity greater than 78h / month): -14.300
They are 824.700 in mainland France.
Annual growth: + 7%.

(...)

Now the siding ...

Category D (unemployed people not available because of sick leave or maternity leave, internship, training or reclassification agreement): -800
At the end of October, there were 235.300 in mainland France.
Annual change: -6%

Category E (unemployed people not available because of subsidized contract): -800
In mainland France, they are 347.100 thus occupied.
Annual change: -3,7%

(...)

In total, all categories combined (ABCDE), the number of unemployed registered with Pôle Emploi in mainland France amounts to 4.775.400 (+ 3,9% over one year). With the overseas departments, we arrive at 5.064.700 (+ 4%), a total of 15.600 more people compared to September.

To these 5.064.700 registered, it is necessary to add the 172.400 “seniors” compensated in metropolitan France (figure not specified for the overseas departments) benefiting from the DRE (the badly named “job search exemption”), not categorized.
Thus, we exceed 5,2 million!

Continuation and details: http://www.actuchomage.org/201111291811 ... mploi.html

With 5 million people on the street we have a revolution without problem (with 3 also for that matter) ... but it is not sure that all these unemployed want it ...

[Christophe]

A "hope" for the revival or manipulation of the figures?

http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article ... _3222.html

A bit of both probably:

The decline in the rate is largely explained by a sharp drop in the active population. However, the number of unemployed people also fell sharply (faster than the labor force), by 594 compared to October. This is the largest drop since July 1983.

I don't quite understand: if the number of unemployed is constant or even decreases, and the active population decreases, then the rate is supposed to rise or fall but less than if this population did not fall ...

Ay I understand! They are no longer active unemployed but retired unemployed ... so it does not fit in the same box ...

[sen-no-sen]

Ay I understand! They are no longer active unemployed but retired unemployed ... so it does not fit in the same box ...

Everything is a question of box indeed.
The figures are clearly oriented, and they have variable geometry!

The "official" figures do not take into account the unemployed at the end of their rights, people struck off, rotten temporary contracts and assignments (less than 15 hours / week).
If we count all its oversights the real unemployment figures must be around 15% in France.
We can easily prove it, given the rise in casualization.

[Christophe]

If we count all its oversights the real unemployment figures must be around 15% in France.
We can easily prove it, given the rise in casualization.

You do not believe so well to say, it is just higher: https://www.econologie.com/forums/post217714.html#217714 = 5.2 Millions of unemployed (or rather "non-workers") ... for how many workers?

28.4 million according to this table: http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/tableau.a ... ATCCF03170 (between 15 and 64 years old!)

So real unemployment in France = 5.2 / 28.4 = 18.3%

To which we must add the even more precarious: RMI, RSA ... and those who touch nothing at all ... In short we exceed 20% ... without any problem!

[bamboo]

Christophe, you are (in my opinion) still advertising for provocateurs with 2 balls.

Not all people who are counted are unemployed, since they work. OK, some may not work as many hours as they would like, but not everyone does.
For example, for category C, it is said "unemployed person in reduced activity for more than 78h / month", whereas it should be indicated "person in reduced activity for more than 78h / month".
Let me explain: Inside, there are some who are 4/5. Some of them want to work 4/5. They are just registered because they would like to change jobs (not necessarily rhythm).

In short, there are already so many unemployed people in France that it is not worth flogging yourself even more if you count people who are not ...

[Christophe]

www.actuchomage.org seems serious to me ... and they are based on official figures ... of unemployment ...

Ok let's remove the category C, there are 4.6 million, so 15.5% ...

But in fact you are right to talk about it: in the end, I don't really understand what category C is ... temporary unemployed workers at least 50% of temporary work hours per month? The rest paid for by unemployment?

Well, it's better than working part time where you get nothing: where do we sign?

[bamboo]

www.actuchomage.org seems serious to me ...

I do not know. It's possible.
That said, when I read, from a member

Here I am since January 1, 2004 at 14 € per day to (over) live, but I prefer that to the Smic

It is not very encouraging ...

Ok let's remove the category C, there are 4.6 million, so 15.5% ...

D and E are, in my opinion, also to be removed. We will not reach 5%, but hey, no need to cheer up even more ...

[sen-no-sen]

Unemployment has hardly fallen depending on the measures of the right or the left, it has always fluctuated around 12 to 15% and this since the end of the "glorious thirty".

[Janic]

all civilizations based on the exploitation of the other had their hour of glory and broke their g ... figure. France and other European countries have benefited from it long enough and according to the laws of balance give way to others by losing their privileges. Unemployment is one of these signs and has only just begun (on a historical scale). The question is how far will it go and what will be the consequences? (we already know by the repetitiveness of the story)